675
FXUS61 KCLE 111140
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
740 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY, BUT COOLER TODAY.
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
UNSETTLED WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY
ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY
USHERING IN DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER. NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING BEFORE
IT CLEARS OUT THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
LAKESHORE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 DEGREES WITH HIGHS SOUTH OF
THE LAKE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. CHILLY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SURFACE HIGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR WARM AND MOIST AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF WARM BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH NEARLY
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVE OVERHEAD.
SUNDAY SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN DRY, BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY
CLIP LAKESHORE ZONES AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY BRINGING INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ONE TIMEFRAME
TO KEEP AN EYE ON WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHERE MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP. SPC HAS CLIPPED NORTHWEST OHIO IN
THEIR SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, DAILY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S EACH NIGHT WHICH
MAY NEAR OR BREAK RECORD WARM OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR A FEW
OBSERVATION SITES IN THE REGION, PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SOME AREAS OF MIXED MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING LOW
STRATUS AND PATCHY MIST/FOG IS LIKELY DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF
HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY
MID-MORNING. FROM THERE, WIDESPREAD VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY, ALTHOUGH EASTERLY WINDS
ARE MORE LIKELY AT KTOL/KFDY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT EASTERN TERMINALS BY 00Z TONIGHT AND EXPECT A WIND
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE
TODAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW DEVELOPING THIS EVENING.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS IN THE OPEN WATERS MAY
APPROACH 25 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF ELEVATED SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MID-WEEK AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IF WINDS/WAVES TREND
HIGHER, ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15
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