771
FXUS61 KCLE 111747
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
147 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY, BUT COOLER TODAY.
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
UNSETTLED WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY
ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY
USHERING IN DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER. NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING BEFORE
IT CLEARS OUT THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
LAKESHORE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 DEGREES WITH HIGHS SOUTH OF
THE LAKE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. CHILLY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SURFACE HIGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR WARM AND MOIST AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF WARM BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH NEARLY
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVE OVERHEAD.
SUNDAY SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN DRY, BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY
CLIP LAKESHORE ZONES AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY BRINGING INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ONE TIMEFRAME
TO KEEP AN EYE ON WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHERE MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP. SPC HAS CLIPPED NORTHWEST OHIO IN
THEIR SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, DAILY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S EACH NIGHT WHICH
MAY NEAR OR BREAK RECORD WARM OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR A FEW
OBSERVATION SITES IN THE REGION, PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH HAS AIDED IN MORNING CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT FOR
THE AFTERNOON. MFD OR FDY COULD SEE BRIEF BKN CLOUDS NEAR 3K
FEET THROUGH 19Z, OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE 10 KNOTS OR LESS OUT OF
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST BUT WILL VEER SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. WESTERN TERMINALS WILL START TO SEE WINDS
GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS AFTER 16Z SUN. SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE 6-10K FEET RANGE IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST BETWEEN 11-20Z. WHILE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE NORTH, THE CHANCE OF A
SHOWER IMPACTING A TERMINALS REMAINS LOW AND THEREFORE DID NOT
INCLUDE IN ANY TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING
WINDS TO DEVELOP OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, THEN OUT OF
THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD AND MAY BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT TIMES INTO MONDAY. WINDS TEND TO REMAIN
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MID-WEEK AT 10-20 KNOTS
BUT COULD BE IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10
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