231
FXUS61 KCLE 120534
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
134 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK WILL RESULT IN MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
2) COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE AND QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
ACTIVE WEEK OF WEATHER AS MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED
TO TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BEGINNING ON SUNDAY, A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH, PRESENTING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES, ALTHOUGH THE BEST SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE CWA. ON MONDAY, THE PARENT LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL MOVE A COLD FRONT EAST,
PRESENTING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES A BIT MORE. THIS PATTERN IS SET TO
ESSENTIALLY REPEAT ITSELF THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, PRESENTING THE CHANCE
FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A NON-
ZERO CHANCE FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE,
ESPECIALLY BY MIDWEEK WHEN THERE SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT AND POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION. AT THIS POINT,
SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN ANY RISK FOR THIS WEEK,
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY UPDATES TO THAT IN COMING FORECASTS.
WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS TIME OF YEAR COMES THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AS WELL. CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST PWAT VALUES THROUGHOUT THIS
WEEK LINGERING IN THE 1-1.5" RANGE, BUT GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THESE SYSTEMS, NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS POINT,
EVEN WITH THE ANTECEDENT WET CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BUILT OVER THE AREA, KEEPING
CONDITIONS COOL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S, BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST TIME IT GETS THIS COLD IN
THE NEAR FUTURE. LATE TOMORROW INTO MONDAY, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH WHICH WILL MARK THE TRANSITION TO DAILY HIGHS IN THE 70S ALL
WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INTO THE 60S. AS
REFERENCE, THE AVERAGE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE'S A LOW-END CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER AT
KERI LATE THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO MUCH DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE FOR APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL AND IMPACTS TO FLIGHT CONDITIONS. MID-LEVEL (BUT STILL
VFR) CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN THE LAST
HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS NEAR
OR SHORTLY AFTER 15Z. GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY WITH
THE HIGHEST GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED AT KTOL/KFDY. A
LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AFTER 00Z TONIGHT AND
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LLWS AND LIKELY A PERIOD OF LOWER SURFACE
GUSTS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING
WINDS TO DEVELOP OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, THEN OUT OF
THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD AND MAY BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT TIMES INTO MONDAY. WINDS TEND TO REMAIN
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MID-WEEK AT 10-20 KNOTS
BUT COULD BE IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...15
MARINE...10
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