830
FXUS61 KCLE 120635
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
235 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK WILL RESULT IN MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
2) ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY WILL
LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
TODAY. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL GLIDE EAST ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER CLIPPING LAKESHORE ZONES GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
SUPPORT ALOFT. ANY QPF FROM THE SHOWERS WILL BE MINIMAL.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW DRAGS A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, THE REGION WILL SOLIDLY BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WHICH WILL YIELD MUCAPE VALUES OF 400-700 J/KG. CAN'T
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP, THOUGH SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT OUR FORECAST AREA IN
A GENERAL THUNDER (I.E. NO SEVERE THREAT) FOR MONDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY FUTURE UPDATES OR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
SWODY FOR THAT TIMEFRAME. IN ADDITION TO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES, IT WILL BE BREEZY TODAY AND MONDAY. SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE FORECAST TO GUST TO
30-35 MPH EACH AFTERNOON.
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BOTH REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THIS FORECAST UPDATE. THE TIMEFRAME OF NOTE WILL BE MIDWEEK
WHERE THE BEST SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION
EXIST. WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO IN THEIR
DAYS 4 AND 5 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THESE SYSTEMS, NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR FLOODING
CONCERNS AT THIS POINT, EVEN WITH THE ANTECEDENT WET CONDITIONS
FROM RECENT RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST, HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RISE INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN WARM IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE'S A LOW-END CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER AT
KERI LATE THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO MUCH DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE FOR APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL AND IMPACTS TO FLIGHT CONDITIONS. MID-LEVEL (BUT STILL
VFR) CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN THE LAST
HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS NEAR
OR SHORTLY AFTER 15Z. GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY WITH
THE HIGHEST GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED AT KTOL/KFDY. A
LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AFTER 00Z TONIGHT AND
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LLWS AND LIKELY A PERIOD OF LOWER SURFACE
GUSTS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING
WINDS TO DEVELOP OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, THEN OUT OF
THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD AND MAY BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT TIMES INTO MONDAY. WINDS TEND TO REMAIN
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MID-WEEK AT 10-20 KNOTS
BUT COULD BE IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...15
MARINE...10
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