353
FXUS61 KCLE 121807
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
207 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK WILL RESULT IN MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
2) ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY WILL
LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
TODAY. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL GLIDE EAST ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER CLIPPING LAKESHORE ZONES GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
SUPPORT ALOFT. ANY QPF FROM THE SHOWERS WILL BE MINIMAL.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW DRAGS A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, THE REGION WILL SOLIDLY BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WHICH WILL YIELD MUCAPE VALUES OF 400-700 J/KG. CAN'T
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP, THOUGH SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT OUR FORECAST AREA IN
A GENERAL THUNDER (I.E. NO SEVERE THREAT) FOR MONDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY FUTURE UPDATES OR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
SWODY FOR THAT TIMEFRAME. IN ADDITION TO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES, IT WILL BE BREEZY TODAY AND MONDAY. SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE FORECAST TO GUST TO
30-35 MPH EACH AFTERNOON.
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BOTH REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THIS FORECAST UPDATE. THE TIMEFRAME OF NOTE WILL BE MIDWEEK
WHERE THE BEST SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION
EXIST. WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO IN THEIR
DAYS 4 AND 5 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THESE SYSTEMS, NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR FLOODING
CONCERNS AT THIS POINT, EVEN WITH THE ANTECEDENT WET CONDITIONS
FROM RECENT RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST, HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RISE INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN WARM IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS OF 20-27 KNOTS. SKIES WILL TREND TOWARDS MOSTLY CLEAR FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WE SHOULD SEE WIND GUSTS DROP
OFF FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEER AS A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 2K FEET MOVES OVERHEAD.
EXPECT SO SEE WINDS AT THE SURFACE INCREASING BETWEEN 06-12Z
AND REMOVED THE WIND SHEER AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASED TO 15-20
KNOTS AND GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS RESUMED. AN AREA OF SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
AND NW PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN 07-14Z. SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH 6 MILE OR BETTER
VISIBILITY BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF DROP TO MVFR IN A
MODERATE SHOWER. CEILINGS WILL LOWER FROM NEAR 5K FEET TO AROUND
3-4K FEET ON MONDAY MORNING. LOWER CEILINGS SEEM MORE LIKELY
TOWARDS TOL AND IN THE EAST AND BROUGHT IN A FEW HOURS OF MVFR
AT TOL/YNG/ERI. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD ALTHOUGH STARTING TO TREND DOWN BY MID AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING
BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND A WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY. THERE MAY BE PERIODS WHERE WINDS VERY BRIEFLY EXCEED 20
KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
FOCUS THE HIGHER WAVES INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE. WITH
THAT BEING SAID, WINDS MAY BE JUST WESTERLY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
WAVES JUST OVER 4 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE EASTERN
BASIN MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND A BRIEF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO ABOUT 10 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER PERIODS OF
ELEVATED WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...10
MARINE...15
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page