420
FXUS61 KCLE 130547
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
147 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A POTENT SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS EXIST.
2) AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PRESENT MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
3) ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ALTHOUGH THIS WEEK WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER WISE, MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO SUGGEST THAT THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE WEATHER SPECIFICALLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LOOKING AT THE OVERALL SET UP, THERE WILL BE A DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US THAT BEGINS TO PIVOT AS A RELATIVELY WEAK
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, AMPLE WAA WILL PERSIST
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE STREAMING OVER THE REGION. BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY, A STRONG LLJ OF 40-50 KNOTS WILL NUDGE
ACROSS THE CWA WHICH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD ULTIMATELY BECOME THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION.
MODELED HODOGRAPHS AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INITIAL STORMS COULD
BE ISOLATED AND HAVE SUPERCELL FEATURES BEFORE MERGING INTO A MORE
LINEAR LINE. GIVEN THIS, ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A NON-ZERO
CHANCE OF TORNADOES. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM ONCE IT GETS WITHIN THE HI-RES GUIDANCE TIME FRAME TO
PINPOINT MORE SPECIFICALLY TIMING AND HAZARD CONCERNS.
CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS
MEDIUM AT BEST AS OF THIS FORECAST UPDATE. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
EVENT COMES FROM THE FACT THAT THERE WILL BE SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
THE LINGERING SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER MAY IMPACT THE THREAT LATER IN THE
DAY. CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST AMPLE DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING WITH
MLCAPE INCREASING TO 1000 TO 2000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON, BUT IF
CLOUDS LINGER THE CAP MAY BE MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME. AS OF
NOW, SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK
WITH A SMALL SLIVER NEAR THE TOLEDO METRO IN A SLIGHT RISK. IN
ADDITION, WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF NW OH IN A MARGINAL DAY 3
ERO.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY BEFORE A VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALMOST
EVERYDAY GOING FORWARD. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGER DEEPENING TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE AREA, PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR
MULTIPLE SURFACE LOWS AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES. THESE SYSTEM SHOULD
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE, MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION.
ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE NOTES ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE
TUESDAY, THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF STORM POTENTIAL,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS WHEN DESTABILIZATION IS
MOST LIKELY. GIVEN THE PERSIST WAA AND GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW, PWAT VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 1-1.5" RANGE WHICH WILL
LIKELY ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
HEAVY RAIN MAY POSE A LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERN GIVEN THE HEAVY
RAINS OVER THE LAST COUPLE WEEKS, BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD
CONCERN GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEMS.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL, THERE WILL ALSO BE MULTIPLE
DAYS WHERE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG LLJS THAT PUSH
NORTH IN THE AREA. GUSTS SHOULD BE LIMITED OVERNIGHT UNLESS
DECOUPLING OCCURS. IN THE CURRENT FORECAST, THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC
WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MORAL
OF THE STORY, THE WEATHER WILL BE VERY ACTIVE IN THE COMING WEEK,
BUT DON'T EXPECT EVERYDAY TO BE A COMPLETE WASH OUT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SPRING LOOKS TO STICK AROUND INTO THE NEAR FUTURE AS ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND BEYOND. CURRENT FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEK
WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS COOLING INTO THE 60S.
LOOKING PAST THIS WEEK, CPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE 8-
14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO LIKELY BE ABOVE
NORMAL.
AS REFERENCE, THE AVERAGE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED BRIEF MENTION OF LLWS AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH 08-12Z/MON AS A SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ OF 45-50
KNOTS REMAINS OVERHEAD. GUSTS WILL BECOME MORE FREQUENT ACROSS
TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS
COMMON ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS AND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WHILE TURNING SOUTHERLY LATE TONIGHT.
LIGHT AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST
ACROSS TERMINALS THROUGH TODAY. VISIBILITIES LOOK TO REMAIN 6SM
OR HIGHER. CAN'T RULE OUT BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
IN MODERATE SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY FALL TO MVFR ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL TAF SITES (TOL/FDY/MFD/CLE).
OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AT 20-25 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN BASIN WILL
EXPIRE AT 10 AM THIS MORNING WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE LAKE
EXPIRING AT 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS 12-18 KNOTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS MULTIPLE SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. PERIODIC
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ142>145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ146>149.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page