405
FXUS61 KCLE 131128
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
728 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
OVERALL, NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS FORECAST. THERE ARE
SOME CONCERNS OF DECAYING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER LIKELY AS EARLY AS TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
2) AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PRESENT MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
3) ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THERE'S
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH A
GREATER RISK EXISTS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WARM/MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY FROM
THE CWA AND SETTLES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES.
SCATTERED/PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE GUSTY
WITH SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH LIKELY THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING, A WEAKENING COMPLEX OF
STORMS MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST, ALTHOUGH THERE
IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY
THIS FAR SOUTHEAST. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
CLOSER TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE CWA.
NONETHELESS, IF STORMS DO MANAGE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT, ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND A LLJ OVER THE REGION
SUPPORT LOW-END THREAT OF SOME ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL,
PRIMARILY ACROSS NW OH WHICH IS CLIPPED BY A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SOMEWHAT BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. THE LOCAL AREA
WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY AND
EXPECT MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A STRONG LLJ WILL MOVING INTO THE REGION
LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND 0-6
KM SHEAR VALUES WILL REACH ABOUT 30 TO 40 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA AS BETTER WINDS ALOFT MOVE INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY EVENING, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A LINE OR BROKEN LINE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. ALL HAZARDS WILL BE ON THE TABLE, ALTHOUGH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA. THERE ARE SEVERAL LIMITING FACTORS THAT
COULD THROW A WRENCH INTO THINGS, HOWEVER. FIRST, ANY SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR STORMS EARLY IN THE DAY OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM
MONDAY NIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS COULD KEEP CLOUDS AROUND AND LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION. SECOND, FORCING WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK WITH THE
BEST FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIRD, A CAPPING
INVERSION WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE
BROKEN FOR ANY STRONGER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. AND FOURTH, THE
EVENING/NIGHT TIMING OF CONVECTION WOULD BE DIURNALLY
UNFAVORABLE, RESULTING IN A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE (OR PERHAPS
MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY) BY THE TIME CONVECTION MOVES INTO
THE CWA. LONG STORY SHORT, THERE'S HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
QUITE LOW AT THIS POINT AND WILL LIKELY RELY ON MESOSCALE
FEATURES THAT HAVE NOT YET BEEN RESOLVED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAVERS OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST AND THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL RELY
ON THE TIMING OF WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT RIPPLE ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS THAT POPS WILL PEAK
ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. CONFIDENCE IN ANY STRONGER CONVECTION IS LOW AT THE
MOMENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH AT
1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD WITH A SWATH OF HIGHER PWATS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES IN SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING AND RISES ON THE MOST
RESPONSIVE CREEKS AND STREAMS. FORTUNATELY, THE RECENT STRETCH
OF DRIER WEATHER HAS ALLOWED ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS TO TREND A
BIT DRIER, WHICH WILL HELP MITIGATE THE ONSET OF FLOODING UNLESS
REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN MOVE OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS/BASINS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
AREA, BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY RETURN AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES THAT
ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
PERIODS OF LOWER 80S LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LOWS
WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S AND 60S. FOR
REFERENCE, AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HIGHEST WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KNOTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING, BUT ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED WESTERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY MORNING. IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES,
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PUSH ACROSS
TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. ANTICIPATE FOR CIGS/VIS TO
REMAIN VFR THOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF MVFR
CEILINGS REMAIN AT TERMINALS ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY AS WE
HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. CURRENT SUITE OF HI-RES
GUIDANCE HINT AT REMNANT CONVECTION ENTERING WESTERN TERMINALS
~00Z/TUE FROM LOWER MICHIGAN/INDIANA. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS BY THE TIME THEY ENTER OHIO LATE THIS EVENING.
FOR NOW, HAVE TIMED OUT WITH PROB30 GROUPS ANY TSRA IMPACTS TO
TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST. FUTURE TAF PACKAGES WILL FINE TUNE
THIS TIMEFRAME AS THE FORECAST BECOMES CLEARER.
OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AT 20-25 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN BASIN WILL
EXPIRE AT 10 AM THIS MORNING WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE LAKE
EXPIRING AT 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS 12-18 KNOTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS MULTIPLE SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. PERIODIC
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ142>145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ146>149.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13
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