625
FXUS61 KCLE 140725
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
325 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL TODAY REMAINS LOW RELATIVELY LOW. THERE'S A
POSSIBILITY OF AN INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND ANY EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
WILL RELY ON HOW THINGS PAN OUT DURING THE DAY. THERE IS ALSO
INCREASING CONCERN FOR STRONGER STORMS AND FLOODING WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS LIKELY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. STORMS
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE AT TIMES, BEST CHANCE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
2) MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.
3) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAVERS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING WITH THE
BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA, CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL RELY ON MESOSCALE FEATURES
AND THE RESULTING CONFIDENCE IN TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND STRENGTHS
OF STORMS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
ROUND 1 (EARLY TODAY): THE ACTUAL FIRST ROUND OF STORMS HAS
EXITED THE AREA, HOWEVER THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THIS
MORNING. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS LEFT
SOME LINGERING BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AS THIS
WEAKENING CONVECTION MOVES IN. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE
IS STILL STABILIZED DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND A MID-
LEVEL CAP, BUT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE.
EITHER WAY, WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
ROUND 2 (THIS EVENING/TONIGHT): THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE EARLY-
DAY CONVECTION PANS OUT. EARLY-DAY CONVECTION MAY HELP STABILIZE
THINGS LATER THIS EVENING. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE CONVECTION
COULD LEAVE BEHIND BOUNDARIES AND A SOURCE FOR CONVERGENCE FOR
EVENING CONVECTION MAINTENANCE AND GROWTH. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION AT
SOME POINT EARLY TO MID EVENING. THERE'S QUITE A BIT OF
DISAGREEMENT IN THE FORECAST AMONGST CAMS, BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IN GENERAL IS HIGH
FOR TONIGHT. DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING, RELATIVELY
HIGH SHEAR VALUES DUE TO A 50 KNOT LLJ MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM MAINTENANCE. WITH THIS ROUND,
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD BUT LARGE HAIL
AND A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE WIND FIELD AND
LAPSE RATES. GENERALLY EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND AS THE STORMS
MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. IF STABILITY STAYS IN PLACE, IT
MAY BE MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO (SEE KEY MESSAGE 2). THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ROUND 3 (WEDNESDAY): THE AIR MASS WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE ON
WEDNESDAY AND IF ANYTHING, MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND FORCING
MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. MOIST AND DEEP WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND CAMS SUGGEST THAT YET
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS WITH
PREVIOUS DAYS, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE STORMS, ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DEPEND ON
MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT HAVE NOT YET BEEN RESOLVED. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS INTERIOR NE
OH AND NW PA WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) ELSEWHERE.
ROUND 4 (THURSDAY): ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. INSTABILITY MAY BE A BIT LOWER DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME, BUT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AHEAD OF OR ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THERE
IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
THURSDAY.
A BRIEF BREAK IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, BUT SHOWERS
AND STORM CHANCES RETURN ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS ON SATURDAY IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE DEEP, MOIST WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PRODUCE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.2 AND 1.5 INCHES
(POSSIBLY HIGHER AT TIMES) THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. TO ADD SOME
CONTEXT FOR HOW UNSEASONABLY HIGH THESE PWATS ARE, THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR PWATS AT SURROUNDING UPPER AIR SOUNDING SITES FOR
MID-APRIL ARE GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH WITH DAILY MAXIMA OF UP
TO ABOUT 1.25 INCHES. STORMS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES AND
MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS COULD CAUSE SOME RISES ON
RIVERS/CREEKS/STREAMS AND CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IN
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL HELP PRIME WATERWAYS AND SOILS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
ON WEDNESDAY. AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING, 1-HR FFG VALUES ACROSS
THE AREA ARE GENERALLY UP TO 1.5 INCHES (WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES UP TO 2 INCHES) WITH 3-HR FFG VALUES OF GENERALLY 1.75-3
INCHES. EXPECT THESE VALUES TO DECREASE WITH ANY HEAVIER
RAINFALL THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. THERE'S ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR
BACKBUILDING/TRAINING WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WOULD INCREASE FLOODING CONCERNS FOR LOCALIZED AREAS. CONFIDENCE
IN QPF (ESPECIALLY AXES OF HIGHER QPF VALUES) IS LOW AND WILL
DEPEND ON WHERE STORMS OCCUR, BUT SEVERAL CAMS HAVE AT LEAST 1
TO 2 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE REPEATED
ROUNDS OF RAIN OCCUR.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. INSTEAD OF NORMAL LOWER 60S FOR
HIGHS, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN
AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT A BIT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES MAY MATERIALIZE WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION. IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY THANKS TO DEW POINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL TEMPORARILY MODERATE TO BELOW
NORMAL VALUES IN THE 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT GUIDANCE FAVORS
A WARMING TREND BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR BEHIND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING. ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE POSSIBLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE POSSIBLE. THE FIRST ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND 15Z/TUE AND PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS TERMINALS THROUGH
~19-20Z/TUE. HAVE TIMED OUT IMPACTS TO TERMINALS WITH THE
INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION USING TEMPO GROUPS. THE DEVELOPMENT
ON THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY HINGE ON WHAT OCCURS
THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF RIGHT NOW, THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF CLE AROUND 03Z/WED WITH A STRONGER
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE
STARTING AT ~04-06Z/WED. FOR THE TAF, OPTED FOR A PROB30 GROUP
AT TOL/FDY AND THE 30-HOUR CLE TAF FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
POSSIBLE CONVECTION. STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND IFR/MVFR
REDUCTIONS TO CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVES OVER A TERMINAL IN THIS TIMEFRAME.
ELEVATED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 12-18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGHEST WIND GUSTS
WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND IN ANY CONVECTION. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED BETWEEN 15-20
KNOTS THROUGH TODAY. GIVEN THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT, THE HIGHEST
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 12-18 KNOTS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE LAKE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS MULTIPLE SYSTEMS MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THURSDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13
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