979
FXUS61 KCLE 141758
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
158 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR ERIE,
PA SOUTHWEST TOWARDS MARION, OH. THIS LINE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A
THETA-E GRADIENT AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ANY SEVERE
STORMS WITH THIS LINE.
IN ADDITION, SPC HAS EXTENDED THE ENHANCED RISK INTO THE FAR
REACHES OF NWOH, CLIPPING LUCAS COUNTY IN OUR AREA. THIS RISK IS
PRIMARILY CONCERNING THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AS MODELS ARE
SLOWLY COMING INTO MORE AGREEMENT THAT AN MCS WILL DEVELOP OVER
WI/MI AND PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE DECAYING REMNANTS
OF THIS MCS MAY CLIP THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA, WHICH IS
WHERE THE HIGHEST CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE 12Z GUIDANCE FOR ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. AS OF NOW, ALL HAZARDS WILL BE AT PLAY TONIGHT WITH
STRONG WINDS THE BIGGEST CONCERN.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS LIKELY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. STORMS
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE AT TIMES, BEST CHANCE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
2) MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.
3) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAVERS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING WITH THE
BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA, CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL RELY ON MESOSCALE FEATURES
AND THE RESULTING CONFIDENCE IN TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND STRENGTHS
OF STORMS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
ROUND 1 (EARLY TODAY): THE ACTUAL FIRST ROUND OF STORMS HAS
EXITED THE AREA, HOWEVER THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THIS
MORNING. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS LEFT
SOME LINGERING BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AS THIS
WEAKENING CONVECTION MOVES IN. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE
IS STILL STABILIZED DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND A MID-
LEVEL CAP, BUT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE.
EITHER WAY, WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
ROUND 2 (THIS EVENING/TONIGHT): THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE EARLY-
DAY CONVECTION PANS OUT. EARLY-DAY CONVECTION MAY HELP STABILIZE
THINGS LATER THIS EVENING. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE CONVECTION
COULD LEAVE BEHIND BOUNDARIES AND A SOURCE FOR CONVERGENCE FOR
EVENING CONVECTION MAINTENANCE AND GROWTH. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION AT
SOME POINT EARLY TO MID EVENING. THERE'S QUITE A BIT OF
DISAGREEMENT IN THE FORECAST AMONGST CAMS, BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IN GENERAL IS HIGH
FOR TONIGHT. DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING, RELATIVELY
HIGH SHEAR VALUES DUE TO A 50 KNOT LLJ MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM MAINTENANCE. WITH THIS ROUND,
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD BUT LARGE HAIL
AND A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE WIND FIELD AND
LAPSE RATES. GENERALLY EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND AS THE STORMS
MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. IF STABILITY STAYS IN PLACE, IT
MAY BE MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO (SEE KEY MESSAGE 2). THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ROUND 3 (WEDNESDAY): THE AIR MASS WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE ON
WEDNESDAY AND IF ANYTHING, MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND FORCING
MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. MOIST AND DEEP WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND CAMS SUGGEST THAT YET
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS WITH
PREVIOUS DAYS, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE STORMS, ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DEPEND ON
MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT HAVE NOT YET BEEN RESOLVED. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS INTERIOR NE
OH AND NW PA WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) ELSEWHERE.
ROUND 4 (THURSDAY): ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. INSTABILITY MAY BE A BIT LOWER DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME, BUT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AHEAD OF OR ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THERE
IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
THURSDAY.
A BRIEF BREAK IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, BUT SHOWERS
AND STORM CHANCES RETURN ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS ON SATURDAY IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE DEEP, MOIST WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PRODUCE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.2 AND 1.5 INCHES
(POSSIBLY HIGHER AT TIMES) THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. TO ADD SOME
CONTEXT FOR HOW UNSEASONABLY HIGH THESE PWATS ARE, THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR PWATS AT SURROUNDING UPPER AIR SOUNDING SITES FOR
MID-APRIL ARE GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH WITH DAILY MAXIMA OF UP
TO ABOUT 1.25 INCHES. STORMS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES AND
MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS COULD CAUSE SOME RISES ON
RIVERS/CREEKS/STREAMS AND CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IN
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL HELP PRIME WATERWAYS AND SOILS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
ON WEDNESDAY. AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING, 1-HR FFG VALUES ACROSS
THE AREA ARE GENERALLY UP TO 1.5 INCHES (WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES UP TO 2 INCHES) WITH 3-HR FFG VALUES OF GENERALLY 1.75-3
INCHES. EXPECT THESE VALUES TO DECREASE WITH ANY HEAVIER
RAINFALL THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. THERE'S ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR
BACKBUILDING/TRAINING WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WOULD INCREASE FLOODING CONCERNS FOR LOCALIZED AREAS. CONFIDENCE
IN QPF (ESPECIALLY AXES OF HIGHER QPF VALUES) IS LOW AND WILL
DEPEND ON WHERE STORMS OCCUR, BUT SEVERAL CAMS HAVE AT LEAST 1
TO 2 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE REPEATED
ROUNDS OF RAIN OCCUR.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. INSTEAD OF NORMAL LOWER 60S FOR
HIGHS, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN
AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT A BIT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES MAY MATERIALIZE WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION. IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY THANKS TO DEW POINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL TEMPORARILY MODERATE TO BELOW
NORMAL VALUES IN THE 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT GUIDANCE FAVORS
A WARMING TREND BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THERE ARE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO THIS
CURRENTLY THAT ARE BRINGING VISIBILITY DOWN TO IFR AND LIFR IN
THE HEAVIEST PORTIONS. THIS LINE SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD AND
IMPACT KMFD,KCAK, AND KYNG OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT WILL BE
FAIRLY QUICK MOVING SO NON-VFR CONDITIONS WON'T LAST LONG.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT KCLE AS THE TOP PORTION OF THE LINE
MOVES THROUGH, THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT DETERIORATE AS MUCH
THAT FAR NORTH. WINDS WITH THE LINE HAVE GUSTED UP TO 35 KNOTS
OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THOUGH UP TO 40 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE AS
WELL. AFTER THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL 05-08Z TOMORROW MORNING WHEN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
SPATIAL EXTENT AND WHEN THE LINE WILL REACH THE AREA, SO OPTED
FOR A PROB30 AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL NEED TO BE REFINED IN THE
COMING TAF PACKAGE THIS EVENING.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 10-15 KNOTS SUSTAINED GUSTING AROUND 20-30
KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT BY 00-02Z DOWN AROUND 12 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE SOME
TURBULENT AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS, BUT LLWS CONCERNS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL WITH LOWER LEVEL WINDS AT AROUND 30 KNOTS. BY EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING, WINDS WILL START GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
WINDS ACROSS LAKE ERIE REMAIN BETWEEN 10-20 KNOTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY. AS WITH PREVIOUS DAYS, THE RESULTANT
WAVES OF 3-5 FEET WILL BE HIGHER IN THE OPEN WATERS AND TOWARDS
CANADA. GENERALLY, WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT
10-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AT
AROUND 5 KNOTS AND VARIABLE. BY SATURDAY, WINDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 15-20 KNOTS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR OHZ003-006>009-018-019.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...04/15
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23
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