637
FXUS61 KCLE 142352
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
752 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF A STRONGER COMPLEX MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL
OHIO. HAIL HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY THREAT UPSTREAM BUT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND THREAT IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
AN ENHANCED RISK NOW CLIPS FAR NW OH WITH STRONG WINDS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN, BUT LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO STILL
POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS NW OH
FROM 00Z WEDNESDAY TO 12Z THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH AN ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY AS THE ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES. ALL HAZARDS ARE AT PLAY.
2) THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
ACROSS THE AREA. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
NORTHWEST OHIO.
3) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY, WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
FOCUSING ON THE REMAINDER OF TODAY/TONIGHT FIRST, THERE IS CURRENTLY
A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA (MARGINAL RISK IN NWPA) FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WINDS,
LARGE HAIL, AND NON-ZERO POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. THE ATMOSPHERE
APPEARS TO BE DESTABILIZING QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE MORNING
ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVED EAST. DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 60S
WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WAA. PATCHES OF CLEARLY SKIES ARE ALSO BEING
OBSERVED, FURTHER ENHANCING THE DAYTIME HEATING. AS A RESULT, SBCAPE
HAS ALREADY CLIMBED TO 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES, ALLOWING FOR AN AREA OF STORMS TO DEVELOP. THESE STORMS
MAY CONTINUE TO RIDE THE THETA-E GRADIENT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST, BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS CONDUCIVE.
WITH THAT BEING SAID, THESE POP UP SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON, EVEN WITH AN OVERALL LACK OF LARGE
SCALE SUPPORT.
THE LARGER CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WILL BE
TONIGHT AS A LLJ AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVERSE THE REGION. THESE
COMPONENTS SHOULD ENHANCE ONGOING CONVECTION UPSTREAM OF THE AREA,
WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY PUSH EAST. BEST THOUGHT ON TIMING AT THIS
POINT IS ONSET NEAR TOLEDO BETWEEN 3-5Z WEDNESDAY, GRADUALLY
SPREADING EAST. THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD CLOSELY MIRROR THE
WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE ESTABLISHED NORTH OF THE AREA, KEEPING THE
GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL ALONG AND NORTH OF US30. WITH THAT BEING
SAID, STRONG OUTFLOW COLLIDING WITH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE FURTHER
SOUTH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ALONG THOSE BOUNDARIES, WHICH IS THE PRIMARY REASON SPC HAS SHIFTED
THE DAY 1 SEVERE OUTLOOK FURTHER SOUTH. THROUGH TONIGHT THERE WILL
BE MANY MOVING PARTS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED, MAKING THIS
FORECAST EXTREMELY TRICKY AND MAINTAINING RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT. ALL HAZARDS WILL BE AT PLAY, ALTHOUGH THE TORNADO THREAT
SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN MCS.
NOW SHIFTING TO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION, BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BOTH DAYS, THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS AFTER OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION. ON WEDNESDAY, RIGHT NOW THE BEST TIMING LOOKS TO BE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING STRONG
WINDS, ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK. ON
THURSDAY, A SLIGHTLY MORE DEFINED, YET STILL WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WOULD LIKELY BE
THE FOCUS OF ANY CONVECTION AND TO HIGHLIGHT THIS SPC HAS PUS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK.
LAST BUT NOT LEAST, THERE IS ALSO A SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON
SATURDAY AS A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE REGION
WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST.
GIVEN THIS IS RATHER FAR OUT, NOT GOING TO DIVE INTO THE DETAILS AS
THEY WILL LIKELY CHANGE, BUT TO HIGHLIGHT THIS RISK SPC HAS
HIGHLIGHT MUCH OF THE CWA IN A 15% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER ON
DAY 5.
TLDR: THERE ARE MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH ALL HAZARDS AT PLAY. TIMING AND INTENSITY REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT
THIS POINT. A POTENT TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST THIS WEEKEND, MOVING A
STRONG COLD FRONT EAST ON SATURDAY AND RESULTING IN ANOTHER
POTENTIAL ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED ALL OF THESE
CONCERNS IN THE VARIOUS SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WITH THIS VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS, SIMILAR MORE TO LATE
SPRING/EARLY SUMMER CONDITIONS, HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION IS LIKELY. MODELED PWAT VALUES OF 1.25-2" ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS SUSTAIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
STREAM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH QPF TOTALS
REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
VARIOUS ROUNDS OF CONVECTION, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF VERY
EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
THESE RATES ARE SUPPORTED BY A DEEPENING WARM CLOUD LAYER AND
PERIODS WHERE A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE ARE PREDOMINANT IN MODELED
SOUNDINGS. IN ADDITION, SOME OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY
A STRENGTHENING LLJ THAT NUDGES NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION, WHICH
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THESE CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH RECENT HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA MAY RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING AND RISES IN STREAMS AND RIVERS, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. GIVEN THE
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL, A FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NW OH BEGINNING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION
OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO DETERMINE ANY ADDITIONAL
HYDROLOGIC HEADLINE NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AS RECENTLY DISCUSSED IN MOST OF THE AFDS, NORTHERN OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA CONTINUE TO RESIDE IN A PATTERN OF ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH DAILY HIGHS INTO THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 60S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST AND COOLS TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE 30S. GIVEN THE PROLONGED WARMTH THE AREA HAS SEEN
THIS WEEK, THE GROWING SEASON HAS OFFICIALLY BEGUN FOR ALL OF THE
OHIO COUNTIES IN THE CWA. WITH THE COOL DOWN EXPECTED, WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR ANY FROST POTENTIAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO HAS BEEN
PRODUCING SCATTERED LARGE HAIL. THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO
EXPAND INTO NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AS MOISTURE INCREASES. CEILINGS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN VFR UPSTREAM BUT COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR
IF THE CORE OF A STORM MOVES OVERHEAD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. EXPECTING A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND AS STORMS CONTINUE
TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH 03Z.
NEXT WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO A LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER
WISCONSIN. THIS LARGER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO
APPROACH THE TOLEDO AREA AFTER 05Z AND COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE
WHILE ALSO PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THIS
FEATURE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BUT UNCERTAINTY DOES
REMAIN IN STORM EVOLUTION AND REFINEMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEHIND THE RAIN. IT IS UNCLEAR IF THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH
OR IF RAIN WILL LINGER LONG INTO THE MORNING. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SERVE AS THE
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A LOW
LEVEL JET DOES INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS NEAR 2K FEET OVERNIGHT BUT
EXPECTING ENOUGH SURFACE WINDS TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
WINDS ACROSS LAKE ERIE REMAIN BETWEEN 10-20 KNOTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY. AS WITH PREVIOUS DAYS, THE RESULTANT
WAVES OF 3-5 FEET WILL BE HIGHER IN THE OPEN WATERS AND TOWARDS
CANADA. GENERALLY, WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT
10-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AT
AROUND 5 KNOTS AND VARIABLE. BY SATURDAY, WINDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 15-20 KNOTS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OHZ003-006>009-018-
019.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...10
MARINE...23
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