784
FXUS61 KCLE 150632
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
232 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LARGELY REMAINS ON TRACK WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS (SOME SEVERE) AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS THE ACTIVE
PATTERN CONTINUES. ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE.
2) REPEATED ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST OHIO,
WHERE CONFIDENCE IN FLOODING IS HIGHEST.
3) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR OHIO COUNTIES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAVERS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS
LIKELY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH EACH
ROUND OF CONVECTION. SEE THE FOLLOWING BREAKDOWN BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS:
TODAY: THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. THE WARM, MOIST FLOW AND LLJ COULD SUPPORT
CONVECTIVE MAINTENANCE ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LINE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS, ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS LESS
OPTIMAL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. ALL CONVECTIVE HAZARDS WILL BE
ON THE TABLE BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL DEFINITELY BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH A FEW TORNADIC SPIN-UPS POSSIBLE ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE. CAMS SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL WEAKEN
AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN
BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND THAT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION/ENHANCEMENT LATER TODAY. SIMILAR TO TUESDAY,
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY WITH STRONGER CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE DEEP, MOIST FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND DEEP SHEAR VALUES OF 40+ KNOTS
ANTICIPATED. THIS WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH ALL
HAZARDS (ESPECIALLY DAMAGING WINDS) POSSIBLE. THAT SAID, GIVEN
THE RELIANCE ON MESOSCALE FEATURES FOR FORCING, CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS IS MEDIUM AT BEST.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY.
THURSDAY: UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE A BIT BETTER ON THURSDAY THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST AS A WEAK COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION LIKELY WITH THE FRONT LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT, BUT
HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES CAN'T BE RULED OUT CONSIDERING THE WIND
FIELD. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) ACROSS THE ENTIRE
LOCAL AREA.
SATURDAY: A BRIEF RESPITE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IS
ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER YET ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS (POSSIBLY
STRONG TO SEVERE) WILL RETURN AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL BE
STRONGER THAN THURSDAY'S, APPROACHES. GIVEN MOIST RETURN FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
REGARDLESS OF THE SEVERITY OF STORMS, VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH RATES OF AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES IS LIKELY WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF 1.25-2 INCHES IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE'S SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING WITH THE LINE OF
STRONGER STORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE VERY LEAST, THIS EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION WILL SERVE AS YET ANOTHER PRIMER FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THERE ARE
STILL CONCERNS FOR BACKBUILDING AND/OR TRAINING LATE TODAY AS
STORM MOTION BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE NORTH. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN THIS MORNING AND
THURSDAY WILL BE BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES (GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF US ROUTE 30), ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST 2-4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE THE
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. FLOODING CONCERNS ARE HIGHEST FOR THE
MORE RESPONSIVE/FLASHY WATERWAYS AND TYPICAL POOR
DRAINAGE/URBAN AREAS. OUTSIDE OF NORTHWEST OHIO, THE LOCATION OF
THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES AND THE RESULTING HIGHEST FLOODING RISK
REMAIN UNCERTAIN GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. INSTEAD OF NORMAL LOWER 60S FOR
HIGHS, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN
AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE ANY CLEARING TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY MATERIALIZE IN THE EVENT OF PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE MUGGY THANKS TO DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL TEMPORARILY MODERATE
TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES IN THE 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT
GUIDANCE FAVORS A WARMING TREND BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE GROWING SEASON HAS OFFICIALLY STARTED FOR OHIO COUNTIES AND
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS TEMPERATURES
TANK INTO THE LOWER 30S AND POSSIBLY UPPER 20S ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO ON
MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
TOWARDS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT 0530Z AND IS MOVING GENERALLY
EAST SOUTHEAST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY
OF TOLEDO AND COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WINDS
OF 40-50 KNOTS AT THE TERMINAL WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST. WE TRIED TO TIME THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS AND EXPECTING THE LINE TO GENERALLY STALL OUT
BEFORE REACHING CAK. CONDITIONS ARE VFR AHEAD OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR OR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED IN
THUNDERSTORMS. IF TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURS, THE LOWER
CONDITIONS COULD LINGER FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE RAIN TENDS TO DISSIPATE THROUGH 14Z. SEVERAL HOURS OF
HEATING ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-DEVELOP
ALONG THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY. EXPECTING TO SEE GOOD COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN ROUGHLY 18Z IN
NW OHIO AND 23Z IN NE OHIO.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WIND
GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF AT A FEW LOCATIONS AND HAVE INCLUDED A
BRIEF WINDOW OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER IN THE TERMINALS WITH
SPEEDS OF 45 KNOTS AT 2K FEET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS RESUMING ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACT
TO DISRUPT WINDS WHICH COULD SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME. WINDS WILL SWITCH BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST
ON WEDNESDAY AT 10-20 KNOTS WITH ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND
VEER TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 15-20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED AT
20-25 KNOTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED HEADING INTO SUNDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OHZ003-006>009-018-
019.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10
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