721
FXUS61 KCLE 160045
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
845 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. THERE WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH ALL HAZARDS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY.
2) MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING FLOODING POTENTIAL TO THE REGION. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN OHIO.
3) TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
FROST/FREEZE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND SATURDAY AS A BOUNDARY
WAVERS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND.
SEE BELOW FOR A BREAKDOWN FOR EACH DAY:
TODAY: NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON AS AMPLE MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. AS THIS OCCURS, MLCAPE VALUES WILL RISE TO 1000-1500 J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.0-7.0
C/KM. LAPSE RATES OF THOSE VALUES COULD INHIBIT SOME THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERN SURFACE FLOW, THERE
WILL BE DECENT LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA, THAT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE TO INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS,
HAIL, AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
GETTING STARTED ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG A BOUNDARY ACROSS THAT AREA. AS THIS MOVES EASTWARD
MORE INTO OHIO, SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE A INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. TIMING WISE, THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ENTER IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA BY 2-3PM AND TRAVERSE ACROSS EXITING INTO
PENNSYLVANIA BY 8-9PM. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SUPPORT FROM A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. THOUGH, SEVERE POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE
SHOULD BE LIMITED GIVEN THE MUCH LOWER INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES.
THURSDAY: ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AREA FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED SEVERE POTENTIAL GIVEN THE
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE IN THE EVENING
WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION. CAN'T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LINE, THOUGH SHEAR VALUES WILL BE BETTER
DURING THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF THE BEST
INSTABILITY. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET AND MOVE OUT TO THE EAST.
SATURDAY: THE NEXT ROUND OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT LATER IN THE EVENING. ALL MODES
OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE, THOUGH THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH GIVEN THE
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT, THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND
1.0-2.0 INCHES THAT WILL SUPPORT RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER
HOUR IN THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT, FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY SITUATED NORTH
OF THE AREA AND SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS. GENERALLY
EXPECTING THIS TO STAY NORTH OF US ROUTE 30. THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT,
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND 1-2 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER END
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE. HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHEASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO RECEIVE MORE RAINFALL, THOUGH THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THUNDERSTORMS SET UP OVER THE REGION SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THIS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
AVERAGE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY SWEEPING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THAT WILL
USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN TO 5-10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST OF
THIS STRETCH, DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S WITH SOME LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY SEEING UPPER 20S. GIVEN THE GROWING SEASON AS BEGUN ACROSS
OHIO, FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE ON TUESDAY RISING TO AROUND SEASONALLY AVERAGE.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS EXITED
THE AREA TO THE EAST GIVING WAY TO A PERIOD OF MOSTLY QUIET
WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY IMPROVING
TO VFR BEHIND THE SHOWERS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECTING ENOUGH MID LEVEL
CLOUD AND SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS TO PREVENT FOG
FORMATION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IOWA WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS A
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH NORTHWEST
OHIO AS EARLY AS 10-12Z, LIKELY EXPANDING IN COVERAGE WITH
HEATING AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST. TRIED TO INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 14-20Z WINDOW.
A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER AT NORTHERN TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KNOTS RETURNING AFTER 14Z ON THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN WITH NON-VFR ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN MAY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SCATTERED WET SNOW AT TIMES SUNDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING.
MARINE
LAKE ERIE REMAINS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SE'WARD ACROSS THE
LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT, ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT, WINDS TREND S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH WAVES OF 3 FEET OR LESS. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS VEER TO
W'ERLY TO N'ERLY AND EASE TO AROUND 5 KNOTS. ACCORDINGLY, WAVES
SUBSIDE TO 1 FOOT OR LESS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY,
VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED. THESE WINDS SHOULD TREND ONSHORE DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING DUE TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, THE RIDGE SHOULD
EXIT E'WARD AND ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO SWEEP N'WARD ACROSS LAKE
ERIE. MAINLY E'ERLY TO SE'ERLY WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT VEER TO S'ERLY AND FRESHEN TO AROUND 10
TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WAVES OF MAINLY 3 FEET OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED, BUT OCCASIONAL 4 FOOTERS SHOULD OCCUR IN OPEN U.S.
WATERS OF THE CENTRAL BASIN BASED ON FORECAST FETCH. A STRONG
COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP E'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW SW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20
KNOTS TO VEER TO W'ERLY AND FRESHEN TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
WAVES SHOULD BUILD TO AS LARGE AS 3 TO 7 FEET AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A TROUGH SHOULD LINGER OVER LAKE ERIE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY
WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS. WAVES AS LARGE AS 3 TO 7 FEET
SHOULD PERSIST. ON MONDAY, A RIDGE SHOULD BUILD FROM THE WEST
AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE AND EASING TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WAVES ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 2 FEET OR
LESS BY SUNSET MONDAY EVENING.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ003-006>009-018-019.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...10
MARINE...JASZKA
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