250
FXUS61 KCLE 160737
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
337 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
GUIDANCE IS TRENDING A BIT FARTHER EAST WITH CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER NOW COVERS LAKESHORE AREAS AND LOCATIONS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 71. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EARLY THIS MORNING IS
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING SO THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
CANCELLED A FEW HOURS EARLY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE LIKELY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
3) TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL BE A BIT LOWER TODAY,
BUT STILL EXPECT PEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY OF UP TO 1000 J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND ALONG THE LAKESHORE. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE A BIT
BETTER TODAY AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE REGION AND SHEAR
VALUES WILL BE 40+ KNOTS. BY THE TIME CONVECTION DEVELOPS, THE
BEST LIFT/CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR EAST OF I-71 IN
OHIO, SO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL BE WHERE TO WATCH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS (POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE) THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING AT A
MID-LEVEL CAP THAT COULD PREVENT THUNDERSTORM GROWTH, BUT THE
SHEAR, MARGINAL INSTABILITY, AND LAPSE RATES SUPPORT A MARGINAL
DAMAGING WIND GUST AND HAIL THREAT, ESPECIALLY IF THE CAP ENDS
UP BREAKING. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
OF SEVERE WEATHER ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND EAST OF I-71 FOR
TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER ON FRIDAY, THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND CROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST
GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE AS 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING PEAK
DIURNAL INSTABILITY SATURDAY AND THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE IN
ADDITION TO THE STRONGER WIND FIELD WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
DISCRETE AND BROKEN LINES OF STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 DEGREES POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE MORE CLEARING THAN ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAY. A
BRIEF PATTERN SHIFT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND SNOW
MAY MIX WITH RAIN ACROSS NE OH/NW PA IF PRECIP PERSISTS INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 40S AND 50S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LOWS WILL BEGIN TO TREND COLDER STARTING
SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
IN THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT,
FROST SEEMS UNLIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS/CLOUDS
AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT FREEZE HEADLINES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT, PRIMARILY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE AIRSPACE STARTS WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS EXIST
WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO INTO NW PA AND
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF SHOWER AT KYNG OR KERI. THE MAIN SHOW FOR
TODAY WILL BE AN INCOMING COLD FRONT THAT WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. EARLY CONVECTION
IN NW OH SHOULD JUST BE RAIN AFTER DAWN AT KTOL AND KFDY.
HOWEVER, CONVECTION SHOULD FLARE UP OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND
ALLOW FOR SOME CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REMAINING TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE SOME TEMPO
GROUPS TIMED IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF TS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION COULD ALLOW FOR
RAIN TO PERSIST FOR THE NE OH AND NW PA TERMINALS. CLOUDS WILL
ERODE FROM THE WEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, CEILINGS
WILL PERSIST DOWN WIND OF LAKE ERIE AND MAY FALL TO MVFR AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH RAIN CONTINUING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SCATTERED
WET SNOW AT TIMES SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING.
MARINE
LAKE ERIE REMAINS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SE'WARD ACROSS THE
LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT, ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT, WINDS TREND S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH WAVES OF 3 FEET OR LESS. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS VEER TO
W'ERLY TO N'ERLY AND EASE TO AROUND 5 KNOTS. ACCORDINGLY, WAVES
SUBSIDE TO 1 FOOT OR LESS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY,
VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED. THESE WINDS SHOULD TREND ONSHORE DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING DUE TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, THE RIDGE SHOULD
EXIT E'WARD AND ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO SWEEP N'WARD ACROSS LAKE
ERIE. MAINLY E'ERLY TO SE'ERLY WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT VEER TO S'ERLY AND FRESHEN TO AROUND 10
TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WAVES OF MAINLY 3 FEET OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED, BUT OCCASIONAL 4 FOOTERS SHOULD OCCUR IN OPEN U.S.
WATERS OF THE CENTRAL BASIN BASED ON FORECAST FETCH. A STRONG
COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP E'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW SW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20
KNOTS TO VEER TO W'ERLY AND FRESHEN TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
WAVES SHOULD BUILD TO AS LARGE AS 3 TO 7 FEET AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A TROUGH SHOULD LINGER OVER LAKE ERIE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY
WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS. WAVES AS LARGE AS 3 TO 7 FEET
SHOULD PERSIST. ON MONDAY, A RIDGE SHOULD BUILD FROM THE WEST
AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE AND EASING TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WAVES ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 2 FEET OR
LESS BY SUNSET MONDAY EVENING.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...JASZKA
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