787
FXUS61 KCLE 161721
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
121 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AND STILL EXPECTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION INTO THIS EVENING, A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO COME THROUGH SATURDAY, AND FREEZE POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONVECTION BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER SEVERE
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
2) A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER
EXPECTED SATURDAY, ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE DROPS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
3) FROST/FREEZE CONFIDENCE GROWING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE CHILLIER CANADIAN AIRMASS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CURRENTLY AWAITING THE EROSION OF A MID LEVEL CAP FROM NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO EASTWARD AT THE TIME OF THIS ISSUANCE, AND WITH HEATING
OCCURRING, INSTABILITY THAT RESULTS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET EXISTS AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD
PROPAGATING SURFACE TROUGH AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR REMAINS ON THE
HIGHER SIDE AT 50-60KTS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE BUOYANCY AFTER
THE MID LEVEL CAP ERODES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS EAST OF I-75
WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THRESHOLDS POSSIBLE. PEAK WINDOW FOR THIS WILL
BE 18Z-02Z FRIDAY WITH ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN TONIGHT IN A STABILIZED
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL STRETCH THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS THERMAL SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER BY AROUND 5F HEADING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER WARM FRONT AND A BRIEF RESIDENCE PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR
FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN AIRMASS CHANGING COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE CWA. AFTER A QUIET FRIDAY, THIS WILL PUT THE REGION BACK
INTO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL
FLOWS AND RENEWED BUOYANCY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DEWPOINTS
BACK TOWARDS THE 60F MARK. COLD FRONTAL TIMING WILL BE AROUND 16Z
THROUGH 23Z GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO, AND EXPECTING LINE SEGMENTS
AND MAINLY A WIND THREAT. THE WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION IS GOING
TO PLAY A KEY ROLE IN HOW THIS EVOLVES, HOWEVER, AND ONLY IN A SMALL
AREA OF SLIGHT FROM THE SWO D3.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, A MUCH MORE SEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES UNDER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE,
AND WILL SEE 850MB TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS TO FALL INTO THE -7C TO -12C RANGE
BY MONDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY MORNING
TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S, AND WITH THE GROWING SEASON NOW
BEGUN, THE NEED FOR FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS IS INCREASING IN
CONFIDENCE. THIS COULD NOW CARRY OVER INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ONLY BE GETTING EAST OF THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING TO ALLOW FOR
SURFACE RETURN FLOW. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION OFF THE SURFACE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A SECOND FREEZE THREAT OUT OF
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS THE POPS EXIT SUNDAY, SOME WET
SNOWFLAKES COULD FALL SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FAR EASTERN CWA. MONDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE UPPER 30S FOR THE FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR NW PA COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO
THE 60S PRIMARILY AFTER MONDAY AND INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO ROAM THE
AIRSPACE THIS MORNING WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE SCOPE.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD IN ACROSS THE REGION AND REACH
ALL OF THE TERMINALS. SOME SHOWERS WILL INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THUNDERSTORMS, LIKELY FOR KMFD TO KCLE AND EAST AND HAVE
CONTINUED A BRIEF WINDOW OF TS IN A TEMPO FOR THE EASTERN 5
SITES. SOME WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOWERS STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
BEHIND THE TS THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN NE OH AND NW PA AND
HAVE SOME LINGERING RAIN MENTIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING BRINGING NORTHWEST WINDS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS. WITH AN AIR MASS CHANGE, THERE WILL BE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW STRATUS LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH RAIN CONTINUING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SCATTERED
WET SNOW AT TIMES SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING.
MARINE
MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY BEFORE FLIPPING
LIGHT FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ENTER ON FRIDAY KEEPING WINDS BELOW 10 KTS AND VARIABLE. A WARM
FRONT WILL ENTER ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND RESTORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
THE LAKE. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 20 KTS OF OFFSHORE FLOW.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT
FLOW TO THE WEST. A TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE LAKE ON SUNDAY
AND KEEP WESTERLY WINDS ELEVATED IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE AND
COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME 4 FT WAVES FOR THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE LAKE. THERE COULD BE THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND ALLOW FOR THEM TO DIMINISH.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page