681
FXUS61 KCLE 161753
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
153 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AND STILL EXPECTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION INTO THIS EVENING, A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO COME THROUGH SATURDAY, AND FREEZE POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONVECTION BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER SEVERE
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
2) A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER
EXPECTED SATURDAY, ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE DROPS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
3) FROST/FREEZE CONFIDENCE GROWING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE CHILLIER CANADIAN AIRMASS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CURRENTLY AWAITING THE EROSION OF A MID LEVEL CAP FROM NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO EASTWARD AT THE TIME OF THIS ISSUANCE, AND WITH HEATING
OCCURRING, INSTABILITY THAT RESULTS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET EXISTS AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD
PROPAGATING SURFACE TROUGH AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR REMAINS ON THE
HIGHER SIDE AT 50-60KTS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE BUOYANCY AFTER
THE MID LEVEL CAP ERODES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS EAST OF I-75
WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THRESHOLDS POSSIBLE. PEAK WINDOW FOR THIS WILL
BE 18Z-02Z FRIDAY WITH ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN TONIGHT IN A STABILIZED
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL STRETCH THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS THERMAL SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER BY AROUND 5F HEADING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER WARM FRONT AND A BRIEF RESIDENCE PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR
FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN AIRMASS CHANGING COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE CWA. AFTER A QUIET FRIDAY, THIS WILL PUT THE REGION BACK
INTO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL
FLOWS AND RENEWED BUOYANCY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DEWPOINTS
BACK TOWARDS THE 60F MARK. COLD FRONTAL TIMING WILL BE AROUND 16Z
THROUGH 23Z GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO, AND EXPECTING LINE SEGMENTS
AND MAINLY A WIND THREAT. THE WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION IS GOING
TO PLAY A KEY ROLE IN HOW THIS EVOLVES, HOWEVER, AND ONLY IN A SMALL
AREA OF SLIGHT FROM THE SWO D3.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, A MUCH MORE SEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES UNDER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE,
AND WILL SEE 850MB TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS TO FALL INTO THE -7C TO -12C RANGE
BY MONDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY MORNING
TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S, AND WITH THE GROWING SEASON NOW
BEGUN, THE NEED FOR FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS IS INCREASING IN
CONFIDENCE. THIS COULD NOW CARRY OVER INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ONLY BE GETTING EAST OF THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING TO ALLOW FOR
SURFACE RETURN FLOW. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION OFF THE SURFACE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A SECOND FREEZE THREAT OUT OF
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS THE POPS EXIT SUNDAY, SOME WET
SNOWFLAKES COULD FALL SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FAR EASTERN CWA. MONDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE UPPER 30S FOR THE FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR NW PA COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO
THE 60S PRIMARILY AFTER MONDAY AND INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK TROUGH LINGERS OVER OUR REGION BEFORE A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS SE'WARD ACROSS NORTHERN OH AND NW PA BETWEEN
~22Z/THURS AND ~06Z/FRI. BEHIND THE FRONT, A RIDGE BUILDS FROM
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH 18Z/THURS. OUR REGIONAL SURFACE
WINDS TREND SW'ERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THESE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY BEFORE 23Z/THURS. BEHIND THE FRONT, W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. HOWEVER, A LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER ~16Z/FRI AND IMPACT LOCATIONS WITHIN
SEVERAL MILES OF THE SHORELINE, INCLUDING KCLE AND KERI.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT, WHILE SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE FRONT
SHOULD LINGER FOR ROUGHLY TWO TO FOUR HOURS AFTER THE SURFACE
FRONT PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR TO LIFR SHOULD ACCOMPANY SHOWERS AND
ESPECIALLY STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BRIEF AND ERRATIC SURFACE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 50 KNOTS. VFR
ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE SHOWERS/STORMS.
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND OUR
REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS BECOMING WEAK OR CALM SHOULD ALLOW
WIDESPREAD RADIATION MIST/FOG AND NOCTURNAL STRATUS TO DEVELOP
OVER OUR REGION AND GENERALLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN
~07Z/FRI AND ~11Z/FRI. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO LIFR ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE LOW CLOUDS AND MIST/FOG. VFR SHOULD RETURN AFTER
~14Z/FRI AS DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ERODES THE LOW CLOUDS AND MIST/FOG.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN WITH NON-
VFR SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SCATTERED WET SNOW AT
TIMES SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING.
MARINE
MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY BEFORE FLIPPING
LIGHT FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ENTER ON FRIDAY KEEPING WINDS BELOW 10 KTS AND VARIABLE. A WARM
FRONT WILL ENTER ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND RESTORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
THE LAKE. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 20 KTS OF OFFSHORE FLOW.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT
FLOW TO THE WEST. A TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE LAKE ON SUNDAY
AND KEEP WESTERLY WINDS ELEVATED IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE AND
COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME 4 FT WAVES FOR THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE LAKE. THERE COULD BE THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND ALLOW FOR THEM TO DIMINISH.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
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