857
FXUS61 KCLE 170004
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
804 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THIS AFTERNOON'S CONVECTION HAS EXITED TO THE EAST. SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS REMAIN LIKELY THIS EVENING, WITH MINIMAL SEVERE
THREAT. ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA. A FEW STORMS
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL, BUT THE SEVERE THREAT IS
LOW. AFTER SOME FOG TONIGHT, QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE FRIDAY.
2) A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER
EXPECTED SATURDAY, ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE DROPS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
3) FROST/FREEZE CONFIDENCE GROWING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE CHILLIER CANADIAN AIRMASS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
STRONG CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAS EXITED TO THE EAST. A
TRAILING VORT MAX AND SURFACE TROUGH IS CROSSING THIS EVENING,
CONTINUING SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST OH AND CRAWFORD COUNTY PA. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL BEFORE 10 PM, THOUGH THE SEVERE
THREAT WAS MAINLY WITH THE EARLIER CONVECTION. A HUMID NEAR-
SURFACE AIRMASS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES THANKS
TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT, WITH HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE GREATEST FOG
POTENTIAL WILL BE NEAR AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF LAKE ERIE. FOG
LIFTS FRIDAY MORNING, GIVING WAY TO A QUIET AND MILD DAY, THOUGH
A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENTLY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER WARM FRONT AND A BRIEF RESIDENCE PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR
FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN AIRMASS CHANGING COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE CWA. AFTER A QUIET FRIDAY, THIS WILL PUT THE REGION BACK
INTO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL
FLOWS AND RENEWED BUOYANCY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DEWPOINTS
BACK TOWARDS THE 60F MARK. COLD FRONTAL TIMING WILL BE AROUND 16Z
THROUGH 23Z GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO, AND EXPECTING LINE SEGMENTS
AND MAINLY A WIND THREAT. THE WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION IS GOING
TO PLAY A KEY ROLE IN HOW THIS EVOLVES, HOWEVER, AND ONLY IN A SMALL
AREA OF SLIGHT FROM THE SWO D3.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, A MUCH MORE SEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES UNDER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE,
AND WILL SEE 850MB TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS TO FALL INTO THE -7C TO -12C RANGE
BY MONDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY MORNING
TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S, AND WITH THE GROWING SEASON NOW
BEGUN, THE NEED FOR FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS IS INCREASING IN
CONFIDENCE. THIS COULD NOW CARRY OVER INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ONLY BE GETTING EAST OF THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING TO ALLOW FOR
SURFACE RETURN FLOW. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION OFF THE SURFACE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A SECOND FREEZE THREAT OUT OF
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS THE POPS EXIT SUNDAY, SOME WET
SNOWFLAKES COULD FALL SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FAR EASTERN CWA. MONDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE UPPER 30S FOR THE FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR NW PA COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO
THE 60S PRIMARILY AFTER MONDAY AND INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A SURFACE TROUGH IS APPROACHING CLE AND MFD AS OF 0Z, WITH
SHOWERS AND A BIT OF THUNDER ACCOMPANYING IT. SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT CLE, CAK,
YNG AND ERI THIS EVENING BEFORE EXITING EAST BY MIDNIGHT. DRY
WEATHER THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAFS THANKS TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS CAN BRING
BRIEF MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER AT A GIVEN TERMINAL IS ON THE LOWER SIDE,
THOUGH INCLUDED IT IN THE YNG TAF WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IT IS VFR THIS EVENING. A DECENT SETUP
FOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH HUMID CONDITIONS, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. CONTINUED TO INDICATE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR ON FRIDAY. VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE LOWEST FOR
LONGEST CLOSER TO LAKE ERIE, INCLUDING CLE AND ERI. MAINLY WEST
WINDS THIS EVENING GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY, SHIFTING MORE SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN WITH NON-
VFR SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SCATTERED WET SNOW AT
TIMES SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING.
MARINE
A WEAK TROUGH LINGERS OVER LAKE ERIE BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
SE'WARD ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. BEHIND
THE FRONT, ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WINDS TREND SW'ERLY
AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 3 FEET OR LESS, BUT
OCCASIONAL 4 FOOTERS ARE EXPECTED IN OPEN WATERS. BEHIND THE
FRONT, WINDS VEER TO MAINLY W'ERLY TO N'ERLY AND EASE TO AROUND
5 KNOTS. ACCORDINGLY, WAVES SUBSIDE TO 1 FOOT OR LESS BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY, VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS
AND WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. THESE WINDS SHOULD
TREND ONSHORE DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING DUE
TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, THE RIDGE EXITS
E'WARD AND ALLOWS A WARM FRONT TO SWEEP N'WARD ACROSS LAKE
ERIE. MAINLY E'ERLY TO SE'ERLY WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT VEER TO S'ERLY AND FRESHEN TO AROUND 10
TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WAVES OF MAINLY 3 FEET OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED, BUT OCCASIONAL 4 TO 5 FOOTERS SHOULD OCCUR IN OPEN
U.S. WATERS OF THE CENTRAL BASIN BASED ON FORECAST FETCH. A
STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP E'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW SW'ERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS TO VEER TO W'ERLY. WAVES SHOULD
BUILD TO AS LARGE AS 3 TO 6 FEET AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A TROUGH SHOULD LINGER OVER LAKE ERIE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY
WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS. WAVES SHOULD BE AS LARGE AS 3 TO 7
FEET. ON MONDAY, A RIDGE SHOULD BUILD FROM THE WEST AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE AND EASING TO AROUND 5 TO
10 KNOTS. WAVES ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 2 FEET OR LESS BY
SUNSET MONDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE SHOULD EXIT E'WARD AND ALLOW A
WARM FRONT TO MOVE GENERALLY N'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY WINDS FRESHENING TO
AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WAVES SHOULD BE MAINLY 3
FEET OR LESS, BUT OCCASIONAL 4 TO 5 FOOTERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
OPEN WATERS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26/SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...JASZKA
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