403
FXUS61 KCLE 170540
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
140 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THIS AFTERNOON'S CONVECTION HAS EXITED TO THE EAST. SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS REMAIN LIKELY THIS EVENING, WITH MINIMAL SEVERE
THREAT. ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA. A FEW STORMS
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL, BUT THE SEVERE THREAT IS
LOW. AFTER SOME FOG TONIGHT, QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE FRIDAY.
2) A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER
EXPECTED SATURDAY, ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE DROPS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
3) FROST/FREEZE CONFIDENCE GROWING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE CHILLIER CANADIAN AIRMASS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
STRONG CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAS EXITED TO THE EAST. A
TRAILING VORT MAX AND SURFACE TROUGH IS CROSSING THIS EVENING,
CONTINUING SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST OH AND CRAWFORD COUNTY PA. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL BEFORE 10 PM, THOUGH THE SEVERE
THREAT WAS MAINLY WITH THE EARLIER CONVECTION. A HUMID NEAR-
SURFACE AIRMASS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES THANKS
TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT, WITH HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE GREATEST FOG
POTENTIAL WILL BE NEAR AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF LAKE ERIE. FOG
LIFTS FRIDAY MORNING, GIVING WAY TO A QUIET AND MILD DAY, THOUGH
A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENTLY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER WARM FRONT AND A BRIEF RESIDENCE PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR
FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN AIRMASS CHANGING COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE CWA. AFTER A QUIET FRIDAY, THIS WILL PUT THE REGION BACK
INTO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL
FLOWS AND RENEWED BUOYANCY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DEWPOINTS
BACK TOWARDS THE 60F MARK. COLD FRONTAL TIMING WILL BE AROUND 16Z
THROUGH 23Z GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO, AND EXPECTING LINE SEGMENTS
AND MAINLY A WIND THREAT. THE WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION IS GOING
TO PLAY A KEY ROLE IN HOW THIS EVOLVES, HOWEVER, AND ONLY IN A SMALL
AREA OF SLIGHT FROM THE SWO D3.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, A MUCH MORE SEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES UNDER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE,
AND WILL SEE 850MB TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS TO FALL INTO THE -7C TO -12C RANGE
BY MONDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY MORNING
TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S, AND WITH THE GROWING SEASON NOW
BEGUN, THE NEED FOR FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS IS INCREASING IN
CONFIDENCE. THIS COULD NOW CARRY OVER INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ONLY BE GETTING EAST OF THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING TO ALLOW FOR
SURFACE RETURN FLOW. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION OFF THE SURFACE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A SECOND FREEZE THREAT OUT OF
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS THE POPS EXIT SUNDAY, SOME WET
SNOWFLAKES COULD FALL SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FAR EASTERN CWA. MONDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE UPPER 30S FOR THE FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR NW PA COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO
THE 60S PRIMARILY AFTER MONDAY AND INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE MAIN MESSAGE FOR AVIATION WEATHER AND EXPECTED IMPACTS WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SKIES ARE STARTING OUT MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING BUT AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z THIS MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR DENSER FOG IMPACTING TOL, FDY, CLE, AND ERI. ELSEWHERE LIGHT
FOG OF 1SM TO 3SM WILL BE LIKELY. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 300 TO 900 FEET THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AWAY BY MID TO LATE
MORNING BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL RETURN BY MIDDAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THIS TAF PERIOD FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT
AROUND 5 KNOTS AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE DURING THIS TIME WINDOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN WITH NON-
VFR SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SCATTERED WET SNOW AT
TIMES SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING.
MARINE
QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TODAY WITH LIGHT WAVES EXPECTED ON THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE LAKE FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE 10 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND
THE FRONT, WESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY GET TO A SCA HEADLINE NEEDED.
WESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL BUILD IN OVER THE LAKE LATE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26/SULLIVAN
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77
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