115
FXUS61 KCLE 170902
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
502 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE ISSUED A BRIEF DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NE OH AND NW PA FOR
THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS PUSHING SOUTH FROM LAKE ERIE THIS
MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY HAS
EXPANDED WEST WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWING COLD FRONT. THE CONFIDENCE
FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES IS GREATLY INCREASING FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING COULD ALLOW FOR
POOR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE, ESPECIALLY
IN NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
2) ONE MORE ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND A TORNADO OR
TWO ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH STORMS.
3) A COLD AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR RESIDUAL RAIN
AND SOME ISOLATED SNOW CHANCES ON SUNDAY. THE COLD AIR WILL
ALLOW FOR FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A BRIEF AIR MASS CHANGE IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH 50S TEMPERATURES OVERTAKING A
RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE AND MOVING OVER LAKE ERIE,
WHICH IS ALSO AROUND 50 DEGREES AT THE SURFACE. WITH THIS COOLER
AIR MASS, FOG IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LAKE AND LOW STRATUS IS
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO FAR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A BRIEF DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
NE OH AND NW PA, AS VISIBILITY FALLS THIS MORNING. FOG SHOULD
MIX OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMING BACK
INTO THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF MESSAGING IN SPC OUTLOOKS, MOST OF THE
ATTENTION OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON
SATURDAY WITH A STRONG, PATTERN CHANGING COLD FRONT. FROM A
SYNOPTIC STANDPOINT, THE SETUP REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST CYCLES WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE CENTRAL US
AND SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTHWEST
ON SATURDAY, WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BY
SATURDAY EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS
CONDITIONAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, AS THERE WILL BE UPSTREAM
ACTIVITY TODAY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE FORECAST AREA AS
DECAYING CONVECTION/OUTFLOW BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD
LIMIT THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERY FOR THE ENTIRE SEVERE WEATHER
SETUP. HOWEVER, STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH 30 KTS AT 925 MB
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME QUICK RECOVERY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AND DEW POINTS TRYING TO RETURN INTO
THE 60S. THE MORE RECOVERY INTO THE REGION WILL DICTATE HOW
EXPANSIVE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD BE ON SATURDAY.
OVERALL, THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THE FORECAST THIS MORNING IS THAT
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HAS SLOWED JUST SLIGHTLY BY AN HOUR OR
TWO, WHICH MAY ALLOW MORE TIME FOR A RECOVERED ATMOSPHERE AND
ORGANIZATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO BE OVER
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO BEFORE PUSHING EAST.
THEREFORE, THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS A COUPLE COUNTIES WEST, NOW REACHING
THE INTERSTATE 71 CORRIDOR. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE ON THE TABLE
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND/OR A TORNADO OR TWO.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AFTER THE STRONG COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY, A COOLER THAN NORMAL
AIR MASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. A RESIDUAL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY WILL SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND IN THE
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF NW PA AND FAR NE OH, THERE COULD BE SOME
BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AREN'T EXPECTED. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
PERIOD WILL BE THE LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR/BELOW FREEZING AND IF
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FROST CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
OF OHIO AND THE PROBABILITY OF HEADLINES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH EVERY MODEL CYCLE. WARMING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, ENDING THE FROST/FREEZE
THREAT FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE MAIN MESSAGE FOR AVIATION WEATHER AND EXPECTED IMPACTS WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SKIES ARE STARTING OUT MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING BUT AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z THIS MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR DENSER FOG IMPACTING TOL, FDY, CLE, AND ERI. ELSEWHERE LIGHT
FOG OF 1SM TO 3SM WILL BE LIKELY. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 300 TO 900 FEET THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AWAY BY MID TO LATE
MORNING BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL RETURN BY MIDDAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THIS TAF PERIOD FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT
AROUND 5 KNOTS AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE DURING THIS TIME WINDOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN WITH NON-
VFR SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SCATTERED WET SNOW AT
TIMES SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING.
MARINE
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LAKE THIS MORNING AND OTHERWISE,
QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TODAY WITH LIGHT WAVES EXPECTED ON THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE LAKE FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE 10 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND
THE FRONT, WESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY GET TO A SCA HEADLINE NEEDED.
WESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL BUILD IN OVER THE LAKE LATE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ011>014-
089.
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ142>149-
162>169.
DISCUSSION...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77
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