412
FXUS61 KCLE 051150
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
750 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR SOME
NUISANCE AND/OR MINOR RIVER FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
FOR SOME NUISANCE AND/OR MINOR RIVER FLOODING.
2) A CHILLY AIR MASS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE REGION MID TO LATE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A SLOW- MOVING
COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, GENERALLY
EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS
AREA COULD RECEIVE UP TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.
AREA SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A MODEST HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH
SATURATED AND SKINNY-CAPE PROFILES, IN ADDITION TO SOUTHWEST
CLOUD LAYER FLOW PARALLELING THE FRONT. GIVEN THE ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND, CHARACTERIZED BY 3-HOUR FFGS JUST UNDER 2
INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AT
LEAST SOME INSTANCES OF NUISANCE FLOODING AND/OR MINOR RIVER
RISES. MORE SIGNIFICANT WATER ISSUES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF
RAINFALL TOTALS TREND ANY HIGHER AND WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY
TREND BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING SOME FROST
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS
AS LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 30S. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS A PAIR OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CHILLY TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND
THESE SYSTEMS.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS STILL ON TRACK TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON THE FRONT EDGE AT NORTH CENTRAL AND NE
TERMINALS. THE TIMING OF THE STEADIEST RAIN HAS TRENDED A
COUPLE OF HOURS SLOWER, SO PUSHED BACK THE PREVAILING RAIN
SHOWERS AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE
CASE AT KCAK, KYNG, AND KERI WHERE IT PROBABLY WILL NOT RAIN
MUCH UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE RAIN ARRIVES, A SLOW DROP IN
CIGS AND VIS TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR WILL OCCUR. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT, BUT RAIN AND
IFR IS LIKELY TO HANG ON IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NE OHIO THROUGH NW
PA UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
S TO SW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS MORNING
BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING NW LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING NE AROUND 3 TO 5
KNOTS BY EARLY TONIGHT THEN BACK TO N TO NW LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS WITH NON-VFR ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MARINE
RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THE REST OF
THE WEEK, WITH NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED. SW WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO NW BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
DECREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS. NE WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TONIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
W WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS BY LATE THURSDAY BEFORE TURNING
SW AT 10-15 KNOTS BY FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE ENTIRE
PERIOD WILL LIKELY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WHEN SW WINDS
OF 15-20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KAHN
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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