942
FXUS61 KCLE 051800
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
200 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR SOME
NUISANCE AND/OR MINOR RIVER FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
FOR SOME NUISANCE AND/OR MINOR RIVER FLOODING.
2) A CHILLY AIR MASS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE REGION MID TO LATE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A SLOW- MOVING
COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, GENERALLY
EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS
AREA COULD RECEIVE UP TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.
AREA SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A MODEST HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH
SATURATED AND SKINNY-CAPE PROFILES, IN ADDITION TO SOUTHWEST
CLOUD LAYER FLOW PARALLELING THE FRONT. GIVEN THE ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND, CHARACTERIZED BY 3-HOUR FFGS JUST UNDER 2
INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AT
LEAST SOME INSTANCES OF NUISANCE FLOODING AND/OR MINOR RIVER
RISES. MORE SIGNIFICANT WATER ISSUES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF
RAINFALL TOTALS TREND ANY HIGHER AND WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY
TREND BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING SOME FROST
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS
AS LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 30S. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS A PAIR OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CHILLY TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND
THESE SYSTEMS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHOWERS HAVE STARTED MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH A COLD FRONT AND
EXPECT RAIN TO FILL IN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION AT EASTERN
TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT/OVERALL LIKELIHOOD OF STORMS IS LOW
SO HAVE PROB30 GROUPS FOR THUNDER FOR THE TIME BEING. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND LOW VISIBILITY IN RAIN,
ALTHOUGH KTOL MAY BE SPARED FROM LONGER DURATION SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IN IFR AND PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS IS
HIGHEST AT KCLE/KMFD/KCAK/KYNG/KERI. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END
FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING AT KYNG AND KERI BY NO LATER THAN AROUND
15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOWER CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR A
FEW HOURS AFTER RAIN ENDS.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH WIND DIRECTION QUICKLY
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH SIMILAR FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN PERIODIC SHOWERS FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH TO 10
KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FROM THERE, WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
PERIODS OF WINDS TO 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS AND WAVES LIKELY REMAINING BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KAHN
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15
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