527
FXUS61 KCLE 052347
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
747 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES. STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD 0.75-1.30" OF RAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
LOW-END FLOODING POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME
MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN PRONE LOCATIONS.
2) QUIETER AND COOLER WEATHER WITH LIMITED FROST POTENTIAL RETURNS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
3) A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN CHANCES RETURNS LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH GENERALLY LOW
POTENTIAL FOR ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1:
A COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME WEAK CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT FROM THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA INTO INLAND NORTHWEST PA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS POST-FRONTAL
AND BEGINNING TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST AS OF THIS WRITING. THIS
COLD FRONT IS INITIALLY SHALLOW AND SLOPED, SO EVEN THOUGH THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING IT
WILL TAKE UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE MID-LEVEL FRONT TO
CLEAR THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE FRONT AND
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED LIFT AND A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD/PERSISTENT RAIN
TONIGHT, WITH RAIN EXITING TO THE EAST VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY LATER THIS EVENING ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE USED UP, SO MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM IN
NATURE OUTSIDE OF LIMITED CONVECTION POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS, WHICH IS CONFINED OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.75-1.30" REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH MORE
ALONG THE LINES OF 0.30-0.75" ACROSS THE TOLEDO AREA. LOCALLY HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY STILL PLAY OUT IF A CORRIDOR OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION CAN EVOLVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING, THOUGH THAT
OVERALL CONCERN HAS DECREASED A BIT. OVERALL, THE IDEA OF SOME
NUISANCE WATER ISSUES WITH PERHAPS SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING AT A
PRONE LOCATION (SUCH AS KILLBUCK OR PHALANX STATION) SHOULD HANDLE
IT GIVEN THE MARGINAL/SPREAD OUT DURATION OF THE RAIN.
LOWS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 40S TONIGHT AS COOLER WEATHER RETURNS,
WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WEDNESDAY WILL NOT
FEATURE MUCH SUN BUT WILL GENERALLY BE ONCE RAIN EXITS EARLY. A FEW
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OH AND NORTHWEST PA...AND A SHORTWAVE MAY BRING A FEW SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT SHOWERS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, THOUGH WEAK LIFT AND A DRYING COLUMN
DECREASE CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE RAIN OCCURRING WITH THIS FEATURE.
KEY MESSAGE #2:
MAINLY QUIET AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. BENEATH COLD AIR ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE AND SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH
MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST OH OR NORTHWEST
PA THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA,
THOUGH OVERALL COVERAGE LOOKS LOW WITH ANY RAIN AMOUNTS LIGHT.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR THURSDAY BEFORE RECOVERING INTO THE
60S (OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST PA) FOR FRIDAY. THE
COOLER AIRMASS DOES BRING SOME FROST POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS, THOUGH NEITHER IS AN IDEAL SETUP FOR IT. A WEAK LINGERING
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST OH/NORTHWEST PA, WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. STILL, SOME PATCHIER FROST MAY OCCUR EITHER OR BOTH
NIGHTS IN TYPICALLY COLDER INLAND LOCALES.
KEY MESSAGE #3:
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF DEEPER TROUGHING
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, EACH BRINGING A WINDOW OF
ELEVATED RAINFALL CHANCES. DESPITE THE UNSETTLED PATTERN, NEITHER
SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BRING A NOTABLE SEVERE WEATHER OR HEAVY
RAIN CONCERN. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND, TRENDING A BIT COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CYCLONIC SW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AFFECT OUR
REGION THROUGH 00Z/THURS. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT EXTENDED
GENERALLY WSW'WARD FROM JUST NORTH AND WEST OF BEAVER FALLS, PA
TO JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF MILLERSBURG, OH TO NEAR MOUNT VERNON,
OH AND THEN TO BETWEEN SIDNEY AND DAYTON, OH AT 23:35Z/TUES.
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY SE'WARD AND SHOULD
EXIT THE REST OF OUR REGION BY 01Z/WED. BEHIND THE FRONT, A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY FROM NORTHERN AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH 00Z/THURS. S'ERLY TO
SW'ERLY SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT, SURFACE WINDS VARY
BETWEEN W'ERLY AND NE'ERLY AND REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH 00Z/THURS.
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. VFR ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS, WHILE CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN
MVFR AND LIFR IN THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF AND ERRATIC SURFACE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35
KNOTS. BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSAGE, WIDESPREAD MVFR
TO LIFR CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF RAIN, STEADY TO HEAVY AT TIMES,
WILL ACCOMPANY MOIST ASCENT ALONG THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE
FRONT. THIS WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MIST AND
PRIMARILY MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY. HOWEVER, AREAS OF FOG MAY
FORM FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN NW PA AROUND DAYBREAK WED, INCLUDING
AT/NEAR KERI. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY
INTO OUR REGION, RAIN WILL END AND A GRADUAL RETURN TO
WIDESPREAD VFR IS EXPECTED BETWEEN ~09Z/WED AND ~17Z/WED.
HOWEVER, BROKEN CUMULI WITH BASES NEAR 3.5KFT TO 5KFT AGL ARE
EXPECTED LATE WED MORNING THROUGH 00Z/THURS.
OUTLOOK...CURRENT ODDS FAVOR DRY WEATHER AND WIDESPREAD VFR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR ARE EXPECTED THIS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH TO 10
KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FROM THERE, WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
PERIODS OF WINDS TO 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS AND WAVES LIKELY REMAINING BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...15
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