446
FXUS61 KCLE 060819
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
419 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY INCREASING FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST
WEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
CHILLY NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
FROST POSSIBLE.
2) RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHILLY AIRMASS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
POST-FRONTAL WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT EAST OF THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING, WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES
OF RAIN EXPECTED, MAINLY EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR. STARTING TO
SEE SOME MINOR RIVER RISES, BUT NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT THUS
FAR. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY,
CHARACTERIZED BY 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING BETWEEN 0 TO -2C,
WHICH WILL DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. AT
THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR FROST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE WEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR WHERE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY VS FURTHER EAST. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FROST
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT, THOUGH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA COULD INTRODUCE CLOUD
AND/OR RAIN CHANCES AND LIMIT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE EXISTS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE AXIS OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL AND THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM,
THOUGH THE AREAS WHERE RAIN OCCURS CAN GENERALLY EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM, HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
THE FRIDAY SYSTEM GIVEN THE MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS INVOLVED.
ANOTHER COOL AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S OR UPPER
30S, ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
ACTIVE PATTERN IS FAVORED TO CONTINUE TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS A
THIRD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPEARS TO IMPACT THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD BE OUT OF KYNG AND KERI BY 15Z. CIGS AND VIS
REMAIN CHALLENGING WITHIN THE RAIN SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN LARGE
FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN LIFR AND VFR. EXPECT MVFR TO BE MOST
PREVALENT EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR AND VFR
SPRINKLED IN. TRIED TO USE TEMPO GROUPS TO REFLECT THIS
UNCERTAINTY, BUT OVERALL POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE.
BY MID MORNING, MAINLY VFR SHOULD DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. KTOL AND KFDY WILL SEE VFR
EARLIER (BY 10 TO 11Z), BUT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WILL
SCATTER OUT TO VFR BY 14 TO 16Z, WITH VFR THEN PREVAILING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TREND MORE
STEADILY NW BY SUNRISE, WITH NW WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS BY THIS
AFTERNOON, BACKING TO MORE WNW BY THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE OVERALL WEAK, SUPPORTING
LIGHT WINDS MOST OF THE TIME. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NW TO WNW AT 5-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BACKING TO W AT 5-15 KNOTS THURSDAY. SW
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WITH
SW WINDS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS
RANGING FROM 5 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD FINALLY TURN N BEHIND A
COLD FRONT SUNDAY AND DECREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS. NO MARINE HEADLINES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KAHN
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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