449
FXUS61 KCLE 061644
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1244 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY INCREASING FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST
WEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
CHILLY NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
FROST POSSIBLE.
2) RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHILLY AIRMASS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
POST-FRONTAL WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT EAST OF THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING, WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES
OF RAIN EXPECTED, MAINLY EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR. STARTING TO
SEE SOME MINOR RIVER RISES, BUT NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT THUS
FAR. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY,
CHARACTERIZED BY 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING BETWEEN 0 TO -2C,
WHICH WILL DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. AT
THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR FROST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE WEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR WHERE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY VS FURTHER EAST. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FROST
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT, THOUGH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA COULD INTRODUCE CLOUD
AND/OR RAIN CHANCES AND LIMIT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE EXISTS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE AXIS OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL AND THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM,
THOUGH THE AREAS WHERE RAIN OCCURS CAN GENERALLY EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM, HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
THE FRIDAY SYSTEM GIVEN THE MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS INVOLVED.
ANOTHER COOL AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S OR UPPER
30S, ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
ACTIVE PATTERN IS FAVORED TO CONTINUE TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS A
THIRD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPEARS TO IMPACT THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE MAIN MESSAGE FOR AVIATION WEATHER WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW WITH CEILINGS MAINLY ABOVE 5000 FEET.
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5-11 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON,
BACKING TO MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
OVERALL MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE
ERIE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE
LAKE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5
TO 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE WESTERLY 5 TO 15 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE LAKE AND
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NO MARINE HEADLINES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AT THIS TIME.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KAHN
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77
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