710
FXUS61 KCLE 061814
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
214 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED IN REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA, RESULTING IN NO NEED FOR HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. CHILLY NIGHTS MAY RESULT IN PATCHY
FROST DEVELOPMENT.
2) WIDESPREAD SHOWERS RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AIRMASS RETURNS
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COOLER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES HAS
PUSHED INTO THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO 0 TO -2C, ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH
OF THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND ON
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEAREST THE LAKESHORE. THERE IS A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER IS THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. IN AREAS THAT SEE A PERIOD OF CLEARING, ENHANCED
RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO LOWER THESE TEMPERATURES A
BIT MORE, POSSIBLY RESULTING IN PATCHY FROST DEVELOPING. THE BEST
CHANCE OF FROST REMAINS WEST OF I-71 AND ACROSS NWPA BOTH TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS
FOR THE NEED OF A HEADLINE. FOR THE TIME BEING, A SUGGESTED
PROACTIVE ACTION IS TO COVER OR BRING INDOORS VULNERABLE VEGETATION
THAT HAS BEGUN TO BLOOM THIS SPRING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST THURSDAY NIGHT, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST, PROVIDING SOME WEAK SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS END OF WEEK LOW PRESSURE SHOULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. INITIALLY, SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. GIVEN THE OVERALL
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGES, CHANCES OF THUNDER REMAIN MINIMAL
AND QPF TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 0.5" KEEPING ANY
FLOODING CONCERNS AT BAY. THIS COLD FRONT BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL JUST
EAST OF THE AREA, ACTING AS A PATH FOR THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY.
THIS LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE
ROBUST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, PROVIDING GOOD SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR THE SURFACE LOW. IN
ADDITION, AMPLE MOISTURE ADVECTION COUPLED WITH A LLJ AND SUPPORT
FROM A STRONG JET ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS PUSHING
WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ON SUNDAY AS TIMING LOOKS TO BE MORE CONVECTIVELY
FAVORABLE, BUT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT.
BEHIND THIS SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN TO
BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH
TUESDAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 40S.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE MAIN MESSAGE FOR AVIATION WEATHER WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW WITH CEILINGS MAINLY ABOVE 5000 FEET.
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5-11 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON,
BACKING TO MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
OVERALL MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE
ERIE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE
LAKE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5
TO 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE WESTERLY 5 TO 15 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE LAKE AND
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NO MARINE HEADLINES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AT THIS TIME.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77
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