832
FXUS61 KCLE 070605
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
205 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED IN REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA, RESULTING IN NO NEED FOR HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. CHILLY NIGHTS MAY RESULT IN PATCHY
FROST DEVELOPMENT.
2) WIDESPREAD SHOWERS RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AIRMASS RETURNS
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COOLER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES HAS
PUSHED INTO THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO 0 TO -2C, ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH
OF THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND ON
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEAREST THE LAKESHORE. THERE IS A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER IS THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. IN AREAS THAT SEE A PERIOD OF CLEARING, ENHANCED
RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO LOWER THESE TEMPERATURES A
BIT MORE, POSSIBLY RESULTING IN PATCHY FROST DEVELOPING. THE BEST
CHANCE OF FROST REMAINS WEST OF I-71 AND ACROSS NWPA BOTH TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS
FOR THE NEED OF A HEADLINE. FOR THE TIME BEING, A SUGGESTED
PROACTIVE ACTION IS TO COVER OR BRING INDOORS VULNERABLE VEGETATION
THAT HAS BEGUN TO BLOOM THIS SPRING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST THURSDAY NIGHT, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST, PROVIDING SOME WEAK SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS END OF WEEK LOW PRESSURE SHOULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. INITIALLY, SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. GIVEN THE OVERALL
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGES, CHANCES OF THUNDER REMAIN MINIMAL
AND QPF TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 0.5" KEEPING ANY
FLOODING CONCERNS AT BAY. THIS COLD FRONT BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL JUST
EAST OF THE AREA, ACTING AS A PATH FOR THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY.
THIS LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE
ROBUST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, PROVIDING GOOD SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR THE SURFACE LOW. IN
ADDITION, AMPLE MOISTURE ADVECTION COUPLED WITH A LLJ AND SUPPORT
FROM A STRONG JET ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS PUSHING
WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ON SUNDAY AS TIMING LOOKS TO BE MORE CONVECTIVELY
FAVORABLE, BUT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT.
BEHIND THIS SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN TO
BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH
TUESDAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 40S.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SLIDES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS. INTRODUCED VCSH
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KYNG AND KERI LATE THIS EVENING AS
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING IN THE MIDWEST
TRIGGERS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS, BUT DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT
COVERAGE UNTIL AFTER THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN W THIS AFTERNOON
AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY. PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BEST CHANCE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
MARINE
THE LAKE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE START OF NEXT
WEEK AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK, SUPPORTING
MOSTLY LOW IMPACT WINDS AND WAVES. W WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, BUILDING WAVES UP TO 2 FEET, BEFORE
TURNING SW AND DECREASING SLIGHTLY TO 5-15 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
TURNING SSW AND FURTHER DECREASING TO UNDER 10 KNOTS FRIDAY. S
TO SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND REACH 10-15
KNOTS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING N AND DECREASING TO
5-10 KNOTS BEHIND A FAIRLY SHARP COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. N WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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