399
FXUS61 KCLE 070658
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
258 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FROST POTENTIAL IS DECREASING TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN
ENTERING MORE QUICKLY. RAIN CHANCES ARE INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH AN
INCOMING SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND RAIN INTO THE REGION WILL REDUCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST TONIGHT.
2) SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
NEW RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE INCH WITH NO
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
3) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FROST CHANCES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR TODAY,
ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL ENTER TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR CLOUDS WITH
SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE
TIMED A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES AND THIS COULD
ELIMINATE ANY FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT, AS TEMPERATURES MAY STAY
IN THE UPPER 30S OR WARMER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A BROADER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE REGION AND ALLOW
FOR RAIN ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND HAVE MAINTAINED POPS. THE MAIN SHOW FOR RAIN
SHOULD BE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A MORE REFINED SHORTWAVE ENTERING
WITH A 35 KT LOW LEVEL JET HELPING GENERATE SOME RAIN ACTIVITY.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO A MIX OF LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A TOUCH ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
60S AND MAYBE SOME LOWER 70S POSSIBLE. A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN ONE INCH THROUGH A FOUR DAY PERIOD AND FLOODING ISSUES
ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE PATTERN CHANGING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL FOR 36-48
HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 30S AND 40S. WITH A DRY AND CLEARING AIR MASS, THERE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS, WHERE
TEMPERATURES CAN GET INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 30S. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO MAYBE 60 ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SLIDES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS. INTRODUCED VCSH
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KYNG AND KERI LATE THIS EVENING AS
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING IN THE MIDWEST
TRIGGERS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS, BUT DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT
COVERAGE UNTIL AFTER THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN W THIS AFTERNOON
AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY. PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BEST CHANCE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
MARINE
THE LAKE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE START OF NEXT
WEEK AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK, SUPPORTING
MOSTLY LOW IMPACT WINDS AND WAVES. W WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, BUILDING WAVES UP TO 2 FEET, BEFORE
TURNING SW AND DECREASING SLIGHTLY TO 5-15 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
TURNING SSW AND FURTHER DECREASING TO UNDER 10 KNOTS FRIDAY. S
TO SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND REACH 10-15
KNOTS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING N AND DECREASING TO
5-10 KNOTS BEHIND A FAIRLY SHARP COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. N WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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