818
FXUS61 KCLE 071751
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
151 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FROST POTENTIAL IS DECREASING TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN
ENTERING MORE QUICKLY. RAIN CHANCES ARE INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH AN
INCOMING SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND RAIN INTO THE REGION WILL REDUCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST TONIGHT.
2) SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
NEW RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE INCH WITH NO
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
3) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FROST CHANCES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR TODAY,
ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL ENTER TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR CLOUDS WITH
SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE
TIMED A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES AND THIS COULD
ELIMINATE ANY FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT, AS TEMPERATURES MAY STAY
IN THE UPPER 30S OR WARMER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A BROADER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE REGION AND ALLOW
FOR RAIN ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND HAVE MAINTAINED POPS. THE MAIN SHOW FOR RAIN
SHOULD BE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A MORE REFINED SHORTWAVE ENTERING
WITH A 35 KT LOW LEVEL JET HELPING GENERATE SOME RAIN ACTIVITY.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO A MIX OF LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A TOUCH ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
60S AND MAYBE SOME LOWER 70S POSSIBLE. A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN ONE INCH THROUGH A FOUR DAY PERIOD AND FLOODING ISSUES
ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE PATTERN CHANGING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL FOR 36-48
HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 30S AND 40S. WITH A DRY AND CLEARING AIR MASS, THERE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS, WHERE
TEMPERATURES CAN GET INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 30S. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO MAYBE 60 ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE OVERALL MESSAGE FOR AVIATION WEATHER WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BUT CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY ABOVE 5000
FEET. THERE COULD BE SOME CEILINGS THAT BRIEFLY LOWER TO 3500
FEET FOR CLE AND CAK EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DRIFTING THROUGH THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF IMPACT TO AVIATION. THERE IS A PROB30 GROUP FOR 6
HOURS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THAT MENTIONS 6SM
-SHRA AND BROKEN CEILINGS FROM 3500 TO 5000 FEET FOR THOSE
POSSIBLE SPOTTY SHOWERS. CLOUDY SKIES FRIDAY MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL RELAX BY SUNSET THIS
EVENING OR 23Z AROUND 5 TO 8 KNOTS FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY RETURNING TOWARDS MIDDAY OR THE
END OF THE TAF WINDOW.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PERIODIC SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
THE WEATHER AND MARINE CONDITIONS FOR LAKE ERIE WILL GENERALLY
BE QUIET WITH SOME WIND SHIFTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER IS NEARBY THE LAKE TODAY BRINGING A WESTERLY FLOW
OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AS IT PASSES BY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP 10 TO 15
KNOTS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY FLOW 8 TO 15 KNOTS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY 5 TO 12 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WAVES WILL INCREASE 1 TO 3 FEET SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY WITH SOME 4 FEET POSSIBLE IN THE OPEN WATER FROM THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77
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