769
FXUS61 KCLE 071803
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
203 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FROST POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS CLOUDS LOOK TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PATCHY FROST MAY BE THE INLAND PORTIONS OF NW PA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOL TEMPERATURES LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD INHIBIT ANY FROST FORMATION
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN INLAND
NWPA.
2) MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH EAST THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. RAIN TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN ONE
INCH OVER TWO DAYS, KEEPING ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL AT BAY.
3) ANOTHER COOL AIRMASS ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE BEING OBSERVED TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S AS A SURFACE RIDGE LINGERS ACROSS
THE AREA. TONIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL IMPACT THE AREA AS
A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT COUPLED
WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS TO OCCUR AND FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THESE SHOWERS
AND CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY FROST POTENTIAL AS THE LACK
OF RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN PORTIONS OF INLAND
NW PA WHERE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAGE EARLY MAY ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL A BIT QUICKER AND PATCHY FROST TO DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AT THIS POINT, SO OPTED TO KEEP ANY FROST
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST, BUT IT WOULDN'T HURT TO PROTECT
VULNERABLE VEGETATION GIVEN THE VERY MARGINAL CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION IT WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. MULTIPLE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ON
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL TO THE
AREA. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND CONSISTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LLJ OF 30-35 KNOTS PUSHING NORTHEAST.
ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD PROVIDE AN
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITH LITTLE TIME TO DRY
OUT THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER IN
THE LOW 60S BEFORE WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON SATURDAY. AS
THE FINAL COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ON SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND BACK DOWN TO BELOW AVERAGE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE A PROLONGED
EVENT, THE OVERALL AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT PWAT VALUES THAT ARE BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, ULTIMATELY RESULTING IN LESS THAN ONE
INCH OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE 3 DAY TIME SPAN. GIVEN THE LIMITED
QPF TOTALS AND THE EXTENSIVE TIME FRAME, THERE REMAIN NO FLOODING
CONCERNS. IN ADDITION, GIVEN THE OVERALL MARGINAL FORCING AND LACK
OF INSTABILITY, NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER TO ASSOCIATED THESE
SHOWERS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK AS ANOTHER CANADIAN AIRMASS PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. HIGHS THROUGH MIDWEEK ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 50S BEFORE POSSIBLE GRADUALLY WARMING NEAR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S. NOT EXPECTING ANY FROST AT THIS POINT, HOWEVER WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THE CLOUD COVERAGE POTENTIAL AS WIDESPREAD CLEARING COULD
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE OVERALL MESSAGE FOR AVIATION WEATHER WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BUT CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY ABOVE 5000
FEET. THERE COULD BE SOME CEILINGS THAT BRIEFLY LOWER TO 3500
FEET FOR CLE AND CAK EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DRIFTING THROUGH THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF IMPACT TO AVIATION. THERE IS A PROB30 GROUP FOR 6
HOURS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THAT MENTIONS 6SM
-SHRA AND BROKEN CEILINGS FROM 3500 TO 5000 FEET FOR THOSE
POSSIBLE SPOTTY SHOWERS. CLOUDY SKIES FRIDAY MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL RELAX BY SUNSET THIS
EVENING OR 23Z AROUND 5 TO 8 KNOTS FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY RETURNING TOWARDS MIDDAY OR THE
END OF THE TAF WINDOW.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PERIODIC SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
THE WEATHER AND MARINE CONDITIONS FOR LAKE ERIE WILL GENERALLY
BE QUIET WITH SOME WIND SHIFTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER IS NEARBY THE LAKE TODAY BRINGING A WESTERLY FLOW
OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AS IT PASSES BY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP 10 TO 15
KNOTS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY FLOW 8 TO 15 KNOTS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY 5 TO 12 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WAVES WILL INCREASE 1 TO 3 FEET SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY WITH SOME 4 FEET POSSIBLE IN THE OPEN WATER FROM THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77
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