802
FXUS61 KCLE 072328
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
728 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FROST POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS CLOUDS LOOK TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PATCHY FROST MAY BE THE INLAND PORTIONS OF NW PA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOL TEMPERATURES LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD INHIBIT ANY FROST FORMATION
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN INLAND
NWPA.
2) MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH EAST THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. RAIN TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN ONE
INCH OVER TWO DAYS, KEEPING ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL AT BAY.
3) ANOTHER COOL AIRMASS ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE BEING OBSERVED TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S AS A SURFACE RIDGE LINGERS ACROSS
THE AREA. TONIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL IMPACT THE AREA AS
A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT COUPLED
WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS TO OCCUR AND FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THESE SHOWERS
AND CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY FROST POTENTIAL AS THE LACK
OF RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN PORTIONS OF INLAND
NW PA WHERE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAGE EARLY MAY ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL A BIT QUICKER AND PATCHY FROST TO DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AT THIS POINT, SO OPTED TO KEEP ANY FROST
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST, BUT IT WOULDN'T HURT TO PROTECT
VULNERABLE VEGETATION GIVEN THE VERY MARGINAL CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION IT WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. MULTIPLE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ON
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL TO THE
AREA. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND CONSISTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LLJ OF 30-35 KNOTS PUSHING NORTHEAST.
ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD PROVIDE AN
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITH LITTLE TIME TO DRY
OUT THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER IN
THE LOW 60S BEFORE WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON SATURDAY. AS
THE FINAL COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ON SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND BACK DOWN TO BELOW AVERAGE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE A PROLONGED
EVENT, THE OVERALL AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT PWAT VALUES THAT ARE BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, ULTIMATELY RESULTING IN LESS THAN ONE
INCH OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE 3 DAY TIME SPAN. GIVEN THE LIMITED
QPF TOTALS AND THE EXTENSIVE TIME FRAME, THERE REMAIN NO FLOODING
CONCERNS. IN ADDITION, GIVEN THE OVERALL MARGINAL FORCING AND LACK
OF INSTABILITY, NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER TO ASSOCIATED THESE
SHOWERS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK AS ANOTHER CANADIAN AIRMASS PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. HIGHS THROUGH MIDWEEK ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 50S BEFORE POSSIBLE GRADUALLY WARMING NEAR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S. NOT EXPECTING ANY FROST AT THIS POINT, HOWEVER WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THE CLOUD COVERAGE POTENTIAL AS WIDESPREAD CLEARING COULD
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TERMINALS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ENTER FROM THE WEST
THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
EXPECTING FOR CIGS/VIS TO REMAIN VFR BUT DROP TO 3500FT AND 6SM.
THERE REMAINS A LOCALLY HIGHER CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS IN RAIN
SHOWERS AT KERI THROUGH ~12Z/FRI. HAVE THIS TIMEFRAME
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE TAF WITH A PROB30 GROUP AT ALL TAF SITES.
THERE WILL BE A DRY WINDOW WHERE CIGS WILL RISE ABOVE 5000FT
FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS
ENTERS THE REGION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD ON FRIDAY EVENING.
GUIDANCE INDICATES A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF NON-VFR CEILINGS
WITH PATCHY NON-VFR VISIBILITIES WITH THE SECOND ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS. HAVE KEPT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT THE 30-HR KCLE TAF AT
VFR WITH THIS ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS, BUT FUTURE TAFS WILL LIKELY
NEED TO ADD IN A MENTION OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF 15-20
KNOT WESTERLY GUSTS AT EASTERN TERMINALS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PERIODIC SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
THE WEATHER AND MARINE CONDITIONS FOR LAKE ERIE WILL GENERALLY
BE QUIET WITH SOME WIND SHIFTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER IS NEARBY THE LAKE TODAY BRINGING A WESTERLY FLOW
OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AS IT PASSES BY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP 10 TO 15
KNOTS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY FLOW 8 TO 15 KNOTS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY 5 TO 12 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WAVES WILL INCREASE 1 TO 3 FEET SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY WITH SOME 4 FEET POSSIBLE IN THE OPEN WATER FROM THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...13
MARINE...77
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