827
FXUS61 KCLE 080604
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
204 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
SERIES OF FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LESS THAN ONE INCH WITH NO FLOODING IMPACTS EXPECTED.
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FROST
CHANCES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS SHAPING UP FOR THIS WEEKEND
WITH SEVERAL FRONTS MOVING THROUGH, BRINGING INTERMITTENT RAIN
CHANCES. FOR TODAY, SOME SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THESE WILL LARGELY FIZZLE
OUT AS THEY ENTER A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS. THE WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY AND WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND
THE FRONT, SOME MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN. FOR SATURDAY,
EXPECTING A DRY START TO THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE WARM
SECTOR. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND THERE
SHOULD BE SOME 70S TO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF A FEW NICE
HOURS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THAT WILL LIKELY BE
SHORT-LIVED FOR MOST AS A SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BROADER UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE FIRST
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE A MIX OF HIGH CHANCE TO
CATEGORICAL POPS. SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN
EARLIER IN THE DAY. FOR SUNDAY, ANOTHER LOBE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL ENTER AND SUPPORT A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL INITIATE SOME MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BEHIND THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS THIS WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK, FEELING MORE LIKE EARLY-
TO-MID APRIL. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S. WITH A DRY AND CLEARING AIR MASS,
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS, MAINLY WHERE TEMPERATURES CAN GET INTO THE LOW-TO-MID
30S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S ON MONDAY. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY TRY TO REACH THE LOWER 60S BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
W'ERLY FLOW ALOFT, EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES, AND NET SURFACE
TROUGHING AFFECT OUR REGION THROUGH 06Z/SAT. OUR REGIONAL
SURFACE WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN S'ERLY AND W'ERLY AROUND 5 TO 15
KNOTS. VFR ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TIME BEING AS VARIABLE AMOUNTS
OF LOW/MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACCOMPANY THE AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCES. SCATTERED AND MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF
THE AXIS OF ONE DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE OUR REGION GENERALLY
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH ~13Z/FRI.
BETWEEN ~16Z/FRI AND ~06Z/SAT, WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOULD OVERSPREAD OUR REGION GENERALLY FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
IN ADVANCE OF THE AXIS OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT. WIDESPREAD CEILINGS MAINLY IN THE 2KFT TO 5KFT AGL RANGE
SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS RAIN, BUT OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE. VISIBILITY SHOULD VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR IN THIS
RAIN AND PERIODIC MIST. NOTE: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
STORMS IMPACTING ANY TAF SITE IS LOW.
OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH NON-VFR ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
AND DURING THE PM HOURS OF THIS TUESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
THE WEATHER AND MARINE CONDITIONS FOR LAKE ERIE WILL GENERALLY
BE QUIET WITH SOME WIND SHIFTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER IS NEARBY THE LAKE TODAY BRINGING A WESTERLY FLOW
OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AS IT PASSES BY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP 10 TO 15
KNOTS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY FLOW 8 TO 15 KNOTS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY 5 TO 12 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WAVES WILL INCREASE 1 TO 3 FEET SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY WITH SOME 4 FEET POSSIBLE IN THE OPEN WATER FROM THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...77
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page