573
FXUS61 KCLE 081809
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
209 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
SERIES OF FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LESS THAN ONE INCH WITH NO FLOODING IMPACTS EXPECTED.
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FROST
CHANCES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS SHAPING UP FOR THIS WEEKEND
WITH SEVERAL FRONTS MOVING THROUGH, BRINGING INTERMITTENT RAIN
CHANCES. FOR TODAY, SOME SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THESE WILL LARGELY FIZZLE
OUT AS THEY ENTER A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS. THE WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY AND WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND
THE FRONT, SOME MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN. FOR SATURDAY,
EXPECTING A DRY START TO THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE WARM
SECTOR. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND THERE
SHOULD BE SOME 70S TO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF A FEW NICE
HOURS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THAT WILL LIKELY BE
SHORT-LIVED FOR MOST AS A SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BROADER UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE FIRST
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE A MIX OF HIGH CHANCE TO
CATEGORICAL POPS. SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN
EARLIER IN THE DAY. FOR SUNDAY, ANOTHER LOBE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL ENTER AND SUPPORT A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL INITIATE SOME MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BEHIND THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS THIS WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK, FEELING MORE LIKE EARLY-
TO-MID APRIL. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S. WITH A DRY AND CLEARING AIR MASS,
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS, MAINLY WHERE TEMPERATURES CAN GET INTO THE LOW-TO-MID
30S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S ON MONDAY. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY TRY TO REACH THE LOWER 60S BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN AND POTENTIAL IMPACT TO AVIATION WILL
BE CEILINGS LOWERING TONIGHT AND SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION OF
3SM TO 5SM DUE TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON, VFR CEILINGS ARE
STARTING OFF THIS TAF PERIOD. BY THIS EVENING AFTER 00Z, THERE
WILL BE AN AREA RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ROUND OF
SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR LATE THIS EVENING. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITES ARE HIGHLIGHTED BY PROB30 BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z FOR
EACH TAF SITE. LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AFTER
THE SHOWERS MOVE OUT, AREAS OF LIGHT FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING IFR CEILINGS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND IMPROVE TO
EITHER MVFR OR VFR CATEGORY BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL START OFF FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON 5
TO 12 KNOTS. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AT
CLE AND ERI WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND 5 TO 8 KNOTS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH ABOUT 21Z OR 22Z. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RESUME
AT CLE AND ERI BY EARLY EVENING. LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 TO 8 KNOTS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN 10 TO 15 KNOTS GUSTS TO 25 AFTER 15Z
SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
OVERALL MARINE WEATHER AND THE CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUIET THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE
A COUPLE WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THAT WILL BRING WIND SHIFTS AND SOME RAIN
CHANCES. WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LAKE AT THIS TIME. A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE TONIGHT WITH A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER. WINDS WILL RESUME A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT 5 TO 12 KNOTS
AND WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE 15 TO 20 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY. WAVES WILL INCREASE 1 TO 3 FEET MAINLY IN THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE BASIN. THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LAKE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND A NORTHWESTERLY WILL FOLLOW BEHIND IT 10 TO
15 KNOTS INTO SUNDAY. WAVES WILL CONTINUE 1 TO 2 FEET ON
SUNDAY.
ANOTHER SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH OR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT REINFORCING PUSH OF NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 10
TO 15 KNOTS AND WAVES 2 FEET OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH LIGHTER WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW 5 TO 12 KNOTS WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77
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