595
FXUS61 KCLE 090616
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
216 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOL AND RAINY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA, WITH THE LEAST RAIN ACROSS TOLEDO AND ALONG THE
LAKESHORE.
2) AFTER A DRIER AND WARMER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP TO QUARTER-SIZED.
3) DRIER WEATHER WORKS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH COOLER, DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START NEXT WEEK. SOME
FROST IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1:
A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. A FLAT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE FRONT AND A
BAND OF MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SQUEEZE OUT A ROUND OF MAINLY
STRATIFORM RAIN. ALREADY SEEING SOME RAIN ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON (THOUGH SOME LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR IS KEEPING IT
QUITE LIGHT FOR NOW), AND EXPECT RAIN TO GRADUALLY EXPAND AND TURN
STEADIER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. RAIN WILL THEN GRADUALLY
EXIT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THERE
WILL BE A SHARP CUT-OFF TO THE RAIN THIS EVENING, WITH THE TOLEDO
AREA AND EVEN NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY PA QUITE POSSIBLY STAYING DRY. THE
HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF CLEVELAND THIS EVENING,
THOUGH THERE ARE DECENT ODDS (80%) FOR LIGHTER (BUT STILL
MEASURABLE) RAIN IN CLEVELAND THIS EVENING. THE SWATH OF BETTER QPF
ACROSS OUR INLAND COUNTIES WILL PRODUCE 0.30-0.75" THROUGH TONIGHT,
DROPPING OFF TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER SOAKING RAIN WITH
MINOR RIVER RISES, THOUGH SHOULDN'T BE MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN THAT.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE #2:
THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY HAS TRENDED MORE IMPACTFUL, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE ARE STILL
LOOKING AT A WINDOW OF WARMER AND DRY WEATHER TO START, WITH
TONIGHT'S RAIN EXPECTED TO EXIT BY EARLY SATURDAY. ONCE WE DRY OUT
EARLY SATURDAY, RAIN CHANCES DON'T RAMP BACK UP UNTIL CLOSER TO 2-6
PM FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. HIGHS SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR OR A BIT
BETTER THAN 70 IN THE WELL-MIXED WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS/STORMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SYNOPTICALLY
ELEVATED SOUTHWEST BREEZES MAY GUST UP TO 30 MPH IN THE WARM SECTOR.
TURNING OUR ATTENTION TO THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER, A FLAT SHORTWAVE
WILL ZIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT COINCIDING WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING LEADS TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH GOOD
COVERAGE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND ADJACENT NORTHEAST OH AND
NORTHWEST PA WHERE THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOST
FAVORABLE. STORMS MAY BEGIN DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN
AROUND MIDDAY, WITH ACTIVITY THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND/OR SPREAD
INTO THE LOCAL AREA AFTER 2 OR 3 PM FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
WITH DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT STRUGGLING TO PUSH ABOVE THE LOWER
50S, THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, STRONG SURFACE HEATING BENEATH
CHILLY AIR ALOFT SHOULD YIELD STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
500-1000 J/KG OF LOW-TOPPED MLCAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS, ALONG
WITH MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AS FLOW ABOVE 600MB INCREASES TO
50-60KT, MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WHILE THE
STRONG FORCING DOES ARGUE FOR A MORE LINEAR MODE, SHEAR VECTORS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR A MORE CELLULAR MODE. MOST HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST AN
INITIAL MIX OF CELLS AND SHORT LINE SEGMENTS GRADUALLY CONGEALING
INTO A MORE LINEAR MODE. THE MODERATE TO STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND
RESULTANT FAST STORM MOTIONS, WHEN COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTATION OF
WELL-MIXED LOW- LEVELS, SUGGESTS STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS
ARE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER RISK...PARTICULARLY WITH MORE ORGANIZED
LINEAR CONVECTION. WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR, A FEW MORE ROBUST CELLS MAY ALSO POSE A RISK FOR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. THE TORNADO RISK IS NOT TRULY ZERO, BUT MARGINALLY HIGH
LCL HEIGHTS, UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL FLOW, AND A LIKELY MESSY/MIXED
STORM MODE SHOULD KEEP THE TORNADO THREAT RATHER MINIMAL.
OVERALL, FEEL THE BROAD SPC MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEW DAY 2 OUTLOOK CAPTURES THE THREAT
WELL. WHILE A SMALL CORRIDOR OF MORE FOCUSED SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD
PLAY OUT WITH A MORE LINEAR STORM MODE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
OH AND NORTHWEST PA, THE MARGINAL OVERALL THERMODYNAMICS AND SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR
CURRENTLY PRECLUDES ANYTHING MORE THAN THE MARGINAL RISK. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, THESE SHOWERS/STORMS AND ATTENDANT SEVERE RISK BEGIN
SPREADING IN AS EARLY AS 2-3 PM FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ANY SEVERE
RISK SHOULD SUBSIDE BY ABOUT 9 PM AS FORCING SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
AND AS THE LOW-LEVELS BECOME WORKED OVER AND MORE STABLE.
THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, THOUGH
MAY NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR OUR AREA UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING AN UPTICK IN SHOWER POTENTIAL LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50.
KEY MESSAGE #3:
DRIER WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES AND THE FRONT EXITS. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD TO START NEXT WEEK, KEEPING US DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
MUCH OF TUESDAY. THERE'S DECENT AGREEMENT IN A SYSTEM OF SOME KIND
AROUND MIDWEEK, BRINGING OUR NEXT POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.
A COOLER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO START NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS LIKELY
STUCK IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL WARM
UP STARTS ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE
EXPECTED, BRINGING FROST CONCERNS ON ANY NIGHTS WITH MORE FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT IF CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS DEVELOP QUICKLY ENOUGH, WITH
PERHAPS BETTER POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CYCLONIC W'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AFFECT OUR
REGION THROUGH 06Z/SUN. AT THE SURFACE, NET TROUGHING LINGERS
FOR THE TIME BEING AND A COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP GENERALLY
SE'WARD ACROSS NORTHERN OH AND NW PA BETWEEN ~22Z/SAT AND
~05Z/SUN. BEHIND THE FRONT, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND VICINITY THROUGH 06Z/SUN. AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT, OUR REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS TREND S'ERLY TO
SW'ERLY AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND SHOULD GUST UP TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL CAUSE OUR REGIONAL SURFACE
WINDS TO VEER TO W'ERLY AND BE AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. FARTHER BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT, SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE MSLP GRADIENT WEAKENS IN
RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE.
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES ALOFT CONTINUE TO EXIT
GENERALLY E'WARD FROM OUR REGION THROUGH ~10Z/SAT. VISIBILITY
WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND IFR IN THIS RAIN. OTHERWISE,
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN ABOUT 5KFT AGL
AND IFR THROUGH ~14Z/SAT. BEHIND THIS MORNING'S RAIN, SUBTLE
BREAKS IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER, WEAK SURFACE WINDS, AND
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW RADIATION MIST WITH
VISIBILITY IN THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE TO FORM THROUGH ~12Z/SAT.
THE MIST AND LOW CEILINGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO
WIDESPREAD VFR BY ~14Z/SAT, FOLLOWING THE ONSET OF DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION BETWEEN ~19Z/SAT AND ~05Z/SUN AS THE
CONVECTION PERSISTS GENERALLY E'WARD. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF MVFR TO LIFR AND GENERATE
BRIEF/ERRATIC SURFACE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 50 KNOTS. FOLLOWING
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSAGE, ADDITIONAL SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE FRONT REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z/SUN. WIDESPREAD CEILINGS NEAR 3.5KT TO 6KFT
AGL ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH NON-VFR ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. PERIODIC SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR ARE EXPECTED THIS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
OVERALL MARINE WEATHER AND THE CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUIET THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE
A COUPLE WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THAT WILL BRING WIND SHIFTS AND SOME RAIN
CHANCES. WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LAKE AT THIS TIME. A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE TONIGHT WITH A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER. WINDS WILL RESUME A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT 5 TO 12 KNOTS
AND WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE 15 TO 20 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY. WAVES WILL INCREASE 1 TO 3 FEET MAINLY IN THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE BASIN. THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LAKE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND A NORTHWESTERLY WILL FOLLOW BEHIND IT 10 TO
15 KNOTS INTO SUNDAY. WAVES WILL CONTINUE 1 TO 2 FEET ON
SUNDAY.
ANOTHER SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH OR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT REINFORCING PUSH OF NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 10
TO 15 KNOTS AND WAVES 2 FEET OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH LIGHTER WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW 5 TO 12 KNOTS WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...77
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