076
FXUS61 KCLE 091805
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
205 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS, THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SEEM LESS
LIKELY, THOUGH ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL
REMAIN ON TRACK ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
HIGHER CHANCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. SOME
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
AND UP TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
2) BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR
FROST/FREEZE TUESDAY MORNING.
3) UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS MID WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION HAVE
STARTED TO DISSIPATE IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN OHIO AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AS A
RESULT HAVE STARTED TO CLIMB UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW 50S. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS WELL WITH THE
TEMPERATURES, THOUGH HOW MUCH IT INCREASES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON IF
TEMPERATURES CAN CLIMB A BIT HIGHER IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
CURRENTLY, MLCAPE IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG AND MUCAPE
NEAR 1000 J/KG BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW AREAS POSSIBLY
REACHING ABOVE THAT. WINDS SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, THOUGH WILL BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE WITH BULK
SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOW AS WELL, WHICH
COULD SUPPORT SOME HAIL, THOUGH GIVEN THE CONDITIONS ABOVE, HAIL
AROUND QUARTER SIZE OR LESS SEEMS REALISTIC. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
STRONG WITH AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WHICH COULD CARRY A STRONG WIND
THREAT WITH IT. THOUGH WITH INSTABILITY WANING INTO THE LATE
EVENING, THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BECOME LESS LIKELY AND SHOULD
ANTICIPATE MORE SHOWERS THAN THUNDERSTORMS.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND RAIN WILL
CLEAR OUT BY THEN. RAIN TOTALS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE
MINIMAL, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL BEING
AROUND A HALF AN INCH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT MODELS HAVE 850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING
DOWN TO 0 TO -3C MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM DURING THE TIME FRAME UNDERNEATH THE HIGH
PRESSURE. DRIER UPPER LEVEL AIR WILL BE MOVING IN LATE MONDAY AS
WELL WHICH SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION OUT OF ANY CLOUD COVER BY
TUESDAY. THIS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST/FREEZE ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S WITH SOME LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 30S. THE
COLDER OF THOSE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN EASTERN OHIO AND
NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE. FLOW WILL SHIFT
TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S FOR HIGHS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE CANADIAN PLAINS AND MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. DON'T ANTICIPATE MUCH THUNDER WITH THE SYSTEM GIVEN THE
ARRIVAL TIME, THOUGH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WOULD STILL BE POSSIBLE OUT
WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OUT EAST WITH THE FRONT MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SOME HIGHER PRECIPITATION TOTALS BY THE END OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY RAINFALL RELATED
IMPACTS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DETERIORATION TO MVFR AND IFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
ANTICIPATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BRIEFLY IMPACT ALL TAF
SITES WITH NON-VFR VSBYS, THOUGH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR THE
STRONGEST STORMS (I.E., GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS AND
POTENTIALLY LARGE HAIL THE SIZE OF QUARTERS), IS AT CLE/YNG/ERI.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, 10 TO
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO 15 TO 18 KNOTS WITH
PERIODIC GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OUT WEST.
WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT, 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXPECTED IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NON-VFR MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA IN RAIN SHOWERS AND
LOW CEILINGS ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ON
LAKE ERIE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AXES OF SUBTLE TROUGHS
ADVANCE E'WARD ACROSS THE LAKE. THESE WINDS MAY FLIRT WITH 20
KNOTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. DURING THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP SE'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND
CAUSE SW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS TO VEER TOWARD NW'ERLY.
HOWEVER, THESE WINDS MAY FLIRT WITH 20 KNOTS AT TIMES EARLY
THIS EVENING. WAVES SHOULD TREND 3 FEET OR LESS, BUT OCCASIONAL
4 FOOTERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A RIDGE SHOULD AFFECT LAKE ERIE AS THE
EMBEDDED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
TOWARD ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR NC ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. PRIMARILY
NW'ERLY TO N'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. WAVES SHOULD TREND 3 FEET OR LESS.
THE RIDGE SHOULD EXIT E'WARD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
LOW WOBBLES ESE'WARD FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD LAKE
ONTARIO AND WEAKENS GRADUALLY. ACCORDINGLY, A WARM FRONT SHOULD
SWEEP NE'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND CAUSE SE'ERLY WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS TO VEER TO
S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN SWEEP E'WARD ACROSS LAKE
ERIE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CAUSE
WINDS TO VEER TO W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY AS WIND SPEEDS EASE TO AROUND 10
TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES SHOULD PRIMARILY BE 4 FEET OR LESS, BUT
OCCASIONAL 5 TO 6 FOOTERS ARE POSSIBLE. FORECAST TRENDS MAY
PROMPT THE EVENTUAL ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...JASZKA
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