162
FXUS61 KCLE 100715
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
315 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD FROST
ON MONDAY NIGHT.
2) A SYSTEM WILL ENTER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY,
BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE REGION. SOME STORMS
AND MODERATE RAINFALL COULD BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A DRY PASSAGE DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY AND PROMOTE DRY WEATHER, WHILE KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL
FOR MID-MAY. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT, AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES MORE IN THE
UPPER 30 TO LOWER 40S, LIMITING THE FROST THREAT FOR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL ENTER FOR MONDAY, WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A CLEAR, CALM, AND DECOUPLING ATMOSPHERE AND LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ARE ANTICIPATED. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD FROST ON MONDAY NIGHT AND SOME
EASTERN AREAS MAY EVEN HAVE A FREEZE, IF LOWER 30S CAN BE
ACHIEVED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OUT AND SOME RETURN FLOW ENTERING THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT, AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION, BRINGING
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME INSTABILITY MAY BUILD ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS COULD SUPPORT
SOME INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THE LATE
DIURNAL TIMING AND WANING INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
MODERATE RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR TRENDS WITH THAT PART
OF THE FORECAST FOR ANY FUTURE FLOOD CONCERN. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND RAINFALL
SHOULD BE LIGHTER ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE IN THE
60S, PERHAPS A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL, COMPARED TO THE UPPER 60S FOR
MID-MAY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT, AUGMENTED BY PRECIP-COOLED AIR
FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, EXTENDED SW'WARD FROM JUST EAST
AND SOUTH OF KDKK, NY TO NEAR KPOV, OH TO JUST NORTH AND WEST OF
KMFD, OH AND KMNN, OH AT 05:45Z/SUN. THIS FRONT CONTINUES
MOVING SE'WARD AND SHOULD EXIT THE REST OF OUR REGION BY
09Z/SUN. BEHIND THE FRONT, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND VICINITY THROUGH 06Z/MON. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, OUR REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS TREND S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. BEHIND THE FRONT, SURFACE WINDS TREND
W'ERLY TO NE'ERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH 06Z/MON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR TO LIFR ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS CONVECTION IMPACTING ANY TAF SITE REMAINS
LOW. VFR ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE SHOWERS/STORMS. BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT, DRY WEATHER AND VFR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/MON.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NON-VFR MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN-HALF OF THE AREA DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS
AND LOW CEILINGS THIS THURSDAY.
MARINE
GENERALLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE THREAT FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE, RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR SMALL
CRAFT POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...KAHN
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