445
FXUS61 KCLE 101049
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
614 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD FROST
ON MONDAY NIGHT.
2) A SYSTEM WILL ENTER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY,
BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE REGION. SOME STORMS
AND MODERATE RAINFALL COULD BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A DRY PASSAGE DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY AND PROMOTE DRY WEATHER, WHILE KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL
FOR MID-MAY. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT, AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES MORE IN THE
UPPER 30 TO LOWER 40S, LIMITING THE FROST THREAT FOR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL ENTER FOR MONDAY, WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A CLEAR, CALM, AND DECOUPLING ATMOSPHERE AND LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ARE ANTICIPATED. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD FROST ON MONDAY NIGHT AND SOME
EASTERN AREAS MAY EVEN HAVE A FREEZE, IF LOWER 30S CAN BE
ACHIEVED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OUT AND SOME RETURN FLOW ENTERING THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT, AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION, BRINGING
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME INSTABILITY MAY BUILD ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS COULD SUPPORT
SOME INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THE LATE
DIURNAL TIMING AND WANING INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
MODERATE RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR TRENDS WITH THAT PART
OF THE FORECAST FOR ANY FUTURE FLOOD CONCERN. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND RAINFALL
SHOULD BE LIGHTER ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE IN THE
60S, PERHAPS A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL, COMPARED TO THE UPPER 60S FOR
MID-MAY.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND THE
NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH 12Z/MON. OUR REGIONAL SURFACE
WINDS TREND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND PRIMARILY NW'ERLY TO NE'ERLY
THROUGH 00Z/MON. BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z/MON, OUR REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS
TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AS THE UPPER-REACHES OF A COLD FRONT
CONTINUE TO EXIT SE'WARD FROM OUR AREA THIS MORNING, ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST BY
~13Z/SUN. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF MVFR. OTHERWISE,
DRY WEATHER AND VFR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z/MON.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NON-VFR MAY
LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS
AND LOW CEILINGS THIS THURSDAY.
MARINE
A RIDGE AFFECTS LAKE ERIE AS THE EMBEDDED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOWARD ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. PRIMARILY NW'ERLY TO N'ERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD BECOME VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WAVES SHOULD TREND 3 FEET OR
LESS.
THE RIDGE SHOULD EXIT E'WARD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A LOW WOBBLES ESE'WARD FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD
LAKE ONTARIO AND WEAKENS GRADUALLY. ACCORDINGLY, A WARM FRONT SHOULD
SWEEP N'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CAUSE SE'ERLY WINDS
TO VEER TO S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY AS WINDS FRESHEN TO AROUND 15 TO 25
KNOTS. A COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN SWEEP E'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CAUSE WINDS TO VEER TO
W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY AS WIND SPEEDS EASE TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS.
WAVES SHOULD BUILD TO AS LARGE AS 3 TO 6 FEET DURING THE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. FORECAST TRENDS MAY PROMPT
THE EVENTUAL ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY,
W'ERLY TO N'ERLY WINDS SHOULD EASE FURTHER TO AROUND 5 TO 15
KNOTS. IN RESPONSE, WAVES SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 3 FEET OR LESS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...JASZKA
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