681
FXUS61 KCLE 101848
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
248 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR INLAND ERIE COUNTY AND CRAWFORD
COUNTY, PA FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
IN THE NEED FOR A WIDER SPREAD FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES FOR
TUESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE
FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
MODERATE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS COLDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR
MUCH OF OHIO AND DOWN INTO THE MID 30S FOR AREAS IN NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. WINDS WILL BECOME CALMER OVERNIGHT AND WITH SOME
CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOR FROST FORMATION IN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT TIMEFRAME
FOR INLAND ERIE COUNTY AND CRAWFORD COUNTY, PENNSYLVANIA. TOMORROW
EVENING THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD TO BE NEARLY OVERHEAD OF THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE CALM WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND DOWN INTO THE LOW 30S IN NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ADDITIONAL FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR
AREAS EAST OF I-71 WITH FREEZE WARNING POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN TIER
OF OHIO COUNTIES AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE TUESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING
AND BRING PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE REGION
AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT AND EXIT TO THE EAST MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
THE TIMEFRAME THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS, GENERALLY EXPECTING SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH THE SHOWERS AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW
THIS PROGRESSES AND THE EXTENT OF ANY IMPACTS. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL END
ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BKN CEILINGS AT OR JUST BELOW 5KFT WILL
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH ANTICIPATE LOWER COVERAGE
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AT CLE/ERI. WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, 8 TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTH
TO NORTHWEST AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON, 8 TO 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NON-VFR MAY LINGER
PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NON-VFR MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY IN LOW
CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS. NON-VFR MAY RETURN IN SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
A RIDGE AFFECTS LAKE ERIE AS THE EMBEDDED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOWARD ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. PRIMARILY NW'ERLY TO N'ERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD BECOME VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WAVES SHOULD TREND 3 FEET OR
LESS.
THE RIDGE SHOULD EXIT E'WARD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A LOW WOBBLES ESE'WARD FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD
LAKE ONTARIO AND WEAKENS GRADUALLY. ACCORDINGLY, A WARM FRONT SHOULD
SWEEP N'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CAUSE SE'ERLY WINDS
TO VEER TO S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY AS WINDS FRESHEN TO AROUND 15 TO 25
KNOTS. A COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN SWEEP E'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CAUSE WINDS TO VEER TO
W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY AS WIND SPEEDS EASE TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS.
WAVES SHOULD BUILD TO AS LARGE AS 3 TO 6 FEET DURING THE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. FORECAST TRENDS MAY PROMPT
THE EVENTUAL ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY,
W'ERLY TO N'ERLY WINDS SHOULD EASE FURTHER TO AROUND 5 TO 15
KNOTS. IN RESPONSE, WAVES SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 3 FEET OR LESS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...JASZKA
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