030
FXUS61 KCLE 110022
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
822 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXPANDED THE FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT WHICH NOW INCLUDES ASHTABULA,
TRUMBULL, AND MAHONING COUNTIES IN OHIO AND INLAND ERIE AND
CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
THE NEED FOR A WIDER SPREAD FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES FOR
TUESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE
FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
MODERATE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DEWPOINTS IN NORTHEAST OHIO DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO NEAR CALM AS THE
RIDGE EXPANDS THIS EVENING AND WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL
QUICKLY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CREEP BACK UP OVERNIGHT, LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES,
ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO. SOME
MIXING MAY DEVELOP LATE AS WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER LAKE
ERIE WHICH COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF
FROST. HOWEVER, ADDED PATCHY FROST TO THE FORECAST FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS EAST OF I-71 AND EXPANDED THE FROST ADVISORY TO
INLAND ASHTABULA, TRUMBULL, AND MAHONING COUNTIES WHERE
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE MID 30S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS COLDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR
MUCH OF OHIO AND DOWN INTO THE MID 30S FOR AREAS IN NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. WINDS WILL BECOME CALMER OVERNIGHT AND WITH SOME
CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOR FROST FORMATION IN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT TIMEFRAME
FOR INLAND ERIE COUNTY AND CRAWFORD COUNTY, PENNSYLVANIA. TOMORROW
EVENING THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD TO BE NEARLY OVERHEAD OF THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE CALM WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND DOWN INTO THE LOW 30S IN NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ADDITIONAL FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR
AREAS EAST OF I-71 WITH FREEZE WARNING POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN TIER
OF OHIO COUNTIES AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE TUESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING
AND BRING PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE REGION
AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT AND EXIT TO THE EAST MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
THE TIMEFRAME THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS, GENERALLY EXPECTING SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH THE SHOWERS AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW
THIS PROGRESSES AND THE EXTENT OF ANY IMPACTS. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL END
ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS BY 03Z AND BE CALM AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE LATE
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
TOWARDS DAWN. ON MONDAY THE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE
BRINGING BROKEN CLOUDS OF 4-8K AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/
NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NON-VFR MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY IN LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN
SHOWERS. NON-VFR MAY RETURN IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
GENERALLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS ANTICIPATED. SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TOWARDS THE WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
SMALL CRAFT POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS BY LATE THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
OHZ014-023-033.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...10/23
AVIATION...10
MARINE...KAHN
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