786
FXUS61 KCLE 110741
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
341 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND ASHTABULA,
TRUMBULL, AND MAHONING COUNTIES IN NE OH AND CRAWFORD AND
SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES IN NW PA UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING. OUR
LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS TRENDED COLDER FOR TUESDAY MORNING.
A FROST ADVISORY OR FREEZE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEED FOR MOST
OF OUR CWA. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, OVERALL, ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS THURSDAY NIGHT. FROST REMAINS A CONCERN THIS MORNING AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
2.) UNSETTLED WEATHER, INCLUDING PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS,
RETURNS TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
3.) A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, MAY
18TH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND VICINITY THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THEN CRESTS E'WARD ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIES THE
RIDGE. NET LOW-LEVEL CAA PERSISTS THROUGH TONIGHT, WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO CONTINUED BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ONLY THE 50'S TO LOWER
60'S. MAINLY CLEAR SKY, WEAK OR CALM SURFACE WINDS, AND LOW
HUMIDITY ACCOMPANYING THE RIDGE WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY, WHEN
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 30'S ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR CWA, INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE. FROST FORMATION IS EXPECTED IN
NW PA AND MUCH OF NORTHERN OH, INLAND FROM THE LAKE. MANY OF OUR
ZONES WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A FROST ADVISORY OR FREEZE WARNING.
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL. AS OUR REGION
BECOMES LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT ON TUESDAY, NET LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN OH AND NW PA. EVEN SO, INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AMIDST MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT, AHEAD OF A TROUGH AXIS ALOFT
THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND VICINITY, WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 50'S TO UPPER 60'S. THIS
INCREASING CLOUD COVER MAY PRODUCE SPRINKLES OVER AND VERY NEAR
LAKE ERIE AROUND SUNSET TUESDAY EVENING.
THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT EXITS E'WARD TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ALOFT
OVERSPREADS OUR REGION AS ITS AXIS MOVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO NEAR LAKE ONTARIO AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AT THE
SURFACE, THE ATTENDANT LOW SHOULD WOBBLE ESE'WARD FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEASTERN NY, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
A SURFACE WARM FRONT TO SWEEP NE'WARD ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE A SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS E'WARD THROUGH OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL PORTION OF
THIS RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD FROM THE WEST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.
NET LOW-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS REACHING THE UPPER
40'S TO MID 50'S TUESDAY NIGHT. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HIGHS TO THE
LOWER TO MID 60'S ON WEDNESDAY, AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. NET
LOW-LEVEL CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO LOWS
REACHING THE 40'S AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
RESPECTIVELY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH ONLY THE 50'S TO LOWER 60'S
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
PERIODS OF RAIN, STEADY TO HEAVY AT TIMES, ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE FOLLOWING: ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ALONG THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE WARM FRONT TAPPING INTO ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF STREAM AND GULF;
CONVERGENCE/MOIST ASCENT ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT; MOIST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE COLD FRONT.
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS WEAK CAPE, INCLUDING ELEVATED CAPE,
IS RELEASED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LIFTING MECHANISMS. DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO LAKE-ENHANCED/EFFECT RAIN OVER AND GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE, ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE, AS A PRIMARILY NW'ERLY MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF
SUFFICIENTLY-COLD/MOIST AIR BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER/DOWNWIND
OF THE ~12C LAKE, AT LEAST WEAK LAKE-INDUCED CAPE FORMS, AND THE
SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESS OCCURS AT TIMES AMIDST A SUFFICIENTLY-
COLD/MOIST LOW/MID-LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXES EMBEDDED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ALOFT. BETWEEN
DAYBREAK AND NIGHTFALL ON THURSDAY, LINGERING LAKE-EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST AND GIVE WAY TO DRY WEATHER
REGION-WIDE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS LAKE-INDUCED CAPE WANES VIA
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION AND A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ACCOMPANYING THE RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES AND VICINITY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, MAY 18TH
AS OUR REGION BECOMES LOCATED WITHIN A NET LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME,
ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. MODERATING TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCLUDE
DAYTIME HIGHS MODERATING FROM THE 60'S AND 70'S ON FRIDAY TO
THE 80'S ON MONDAY. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DAILY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING HOURS, AS A LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW OF MOIST AIR
ORIGINATING OVER THE GULF BECOMES ESTABLISHED, THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZES VIA DAYTIME HEATING EACH DAY, AND MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE PRIMARILY SW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT
AND ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH AXES TRAVERSE OUR REGION.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
AN INITIAL ROUND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST THIS
MORNING AND ALLOW FOR JUST SOME HIGH CIRRUS DURING LATE MORNING
HOURS. SOME LOWER VFR CEILINGS MAY RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME MOISTURE BETWEEN 4 AND 8 KFT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE
AIRSPACE. HIGH CEILINGS WILL RETURN BY EVENING WITH DIURNAL
COOLING ELIMINATING THE AFTERNOON CUMULUS FIELD. WINDS DURING
THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AT 10 KTS OR LESS. WIND DIRECTION WILL
BE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SETTLING ON A NORTHERLY COMPONENT
FOR MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS
THROUGH THURSDAY. NON-VFR MAY RETURN IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
ALLOW FOR LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE LAKE. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT
EAST ON TUESDAY AND ALLOW FOR LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ON THE LAKE. THE
MAIN WINDOW FOR LAKE IMPACTS WILL BE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EXTEND A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH 15 TO 25 KTS OF FLOW AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW
FOR WESTERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KTS ACROSS THE BASIN. THIS LOW WILL
EXTEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND 15 TO 20
KTS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME FAVORED BEHIND THE FEATURE. THESE
ELEVATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, SOME ELEVATED WAVES OF 3 TO 4 FT ARE POSSIBLE
AND THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY,
ESPECIALLY IF WINDS TREND HIGHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL TREND
LIGHTER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
FOR FRIDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ014-023-033.
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JASZKA
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
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