853
FXUS61 KCLE 111835
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
235 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED REMAINING COUNTIES IN OHIO FOR TUESDAY MORNING. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN OHIO AND
NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES DROP DOWN INTO THE MID TO LOW 30S.
2) MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LINGERING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA INTO
THURSDAY.
3) WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION STARTING ON FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. 850MB
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED WARMER OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS
RANGING BETWEEN -2C TO THE NORTHEAST TO 2C TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA. THIS HAS LOWERED CONFIDENCE IN A WIDER SPREAD FREEZE POTENTIAL
OUTSIDE OF THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF OHIO COUNTIES AND IN
PENNSYLVANIA. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS ACROSS WESTERN OHIO WILL BE OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST CREATING ON SHORE FLOW
THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN NORTHWESTERN OHIO A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER. THE FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH IN THE CWA, THE HARDER IT WILL BE
TO HAVE WIDESPREAD FROST DUE TO THE WINDS BEING SLIGHTLY STRONGER
AND BEING ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE 850 TEMPERATURES. FROST FORMATION
IN LOW LYING AND SHELTERED AREAS ARE STILL LIKELY GIVEN THE SETUP.
WITH THAT BEING SAID, A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
EASTERN TIER OF OHIO COUNTIES ALONG WITH THE TWO PENNSYLVANIA
COUNTIES. THE REMAINING OHIO COUNTIES, TO INCLUDE THE LAKESHORE
ZONES OF ASHTABULA, OH AND ERIE, PA, HAVE BEEN PLACED IN A FROST
ADVISORY. BOTH OF THESE HEADLINES ARE VALID FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH 8AM TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER FROM THE WEST LATE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND EXIT TO THE EAST MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS AROUND 0.50" FOR QPF ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF THERE ARE HEAVIER SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST,
THERE WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND LAKE ERIE
THAT WILL HELP GENERATE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. GENERALLY, THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH NO MAJOR ACCUMULATION. THESE
SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE AND RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND WINDS SHIFT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
STARTING SATURDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF CONUS AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ACROSS THE AREA AS
A RESULT. THE HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S ACROSS THE REGION. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB FURTHER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. ADDITIONALLY, DEW POINTS
WILL CLIMB AS WELL WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE DUE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SCT TO BKN DECK AROUND 8KFT WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME FEW TO SKC LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OF 8 TO 12 KNOTS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND FAVOR A NORTH TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION OVERNIGHT,
LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE
WILL IMPACT ERI AND POTENTIALLY REACH CLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS
THROUGH THURSDAY. NON-VFR MAY RETURN IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
ALLOW FOR LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE LAKE. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT
EAST ON TUESDAY AND ALLOW FOR LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ON THE LAKE. THE
MAIN WINDOW FOR LAKE IMPACTS WILL BE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EXTEND A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH 15 TO 25 KTS OF FLOW AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW
FOR WESTERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KTS ACROSS THE BASIN. THIS LOW WILL
EXTEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND 15 TO 20
KTS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME FAVORED BEHIND THE FEATURE. THESE
ELEVATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, SOME ELEVATED WAVES OF 3 TO 4 FT ARE POSSIBLE
AND THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY,
ESPECIALLY IF WINDS TREND HIGHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL TREND
LIGHTER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
FOR FRIDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
OHZ003-006>013-017>022-027>032-036>038-047-089.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
OHZ014-023-033.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
PAZ001.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
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