596
FXUS61 KCLE 261747
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
147 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL
SLOWLY BUILD OFF TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AND
IN NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO THROUGH MID-MORNING.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY THAT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE AREA
SOUTH OF US 30, THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH OF THE
MID TO LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ERODES AWAY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THOUGH EXPECTING IT TO BE DRY ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SW'ERLY TO NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IMPACT
NORTHERN OH AND NW PA THROUGH 18Z/WED. AT THE SURFACE, A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXITS SLOWLY SE'WARD AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND REACHES SOUTHERN
LOWER MI AND THE NORTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE BY 18Z/WED. OUR
REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS TREND MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, A LAKE BREEZE OF ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS
EXPECTED OVER AND WITHIN SEVERAL MILES OF LAKE ERIE UNTIL
~23Z/TUES AND AFTER ~16Z/WED. THIS LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT KCLE AND KERI.
PRIMARILY VFR AND VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF LOW/MID/UPPER-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, MOIST
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE AXIS OF ONE OF THE DISTURBANCES ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS, STEADY TO HEAVY AT TIMES, TO OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AFTER ~06Z/WED AND PERSIST
THROUGH 18Z/WED, ESPECIALLY ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
THROUGH KYNG AND KFDY. PERIODIC MVFR MAY ACCOMPANY SHOWERS. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IN A THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING ANY TAF SITE IS LOW.
NOTE: AREAS OF MIST AND/OR FOG MAY FORM VIA NOCTURNAL COOLING AMIDST
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER ~05Z/WED BEFORE DISSIPATING
SOON AFTER DAYBREAK WED. HOWEVER, ODDS FAVOR ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER PREVENTING MIST AND/OR FOG FORMATION.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
NON-VFR ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.
CURRENT ODDS FAVOR DRY WEATHER AND VFR THIS THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
MARINE
OVERALL MARINE WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET ON LAKE ERIE THIS
WEEK. THER ARE SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING. THIS MARINE
LAYER FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. A
WEAK AREA OF PRESSURE IS OVER LAKE ERIE TODAY. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE LATE
WEDNESDAY. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
5-15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN BY FRIDAY. WAVES WILL GENERALLY
BE 1 TO 2 FEET OR LESS THIS WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...77
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