056
FXUS61 KCLE 270508
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
108 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY HAVE INCREASED,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A FINDLAY, OH TO MEADVILLE, PA LINE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A FINDLAY, OH TO MEADVILLE, PA LINE. THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE ANY RAIN.
2) DRY AND VERY PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS (AND LIKELY
BEYOND) WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TRAVERSES AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS DRIVING A BAND OF SHOWERS NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, AND AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT, THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL STRENGTHEN AND LIFT THE BOUNDARY
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH
A 60-70 KNOT H3 JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION. THE LATEST HREF, RAP, AND NAM
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A BAND OF SHOWERS SETTING UP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A ROUGHLY FINDLAY TO MEADVILLE LINE IN THE 09-16Z
TIMEFRAME BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
THE MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEPART.
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL IN MUCH OF THIS SWATH LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SOME CHANCE POPS
FARTHER NORTH, ALTHOUGH THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY
NOT SEE ANY RAIN.
A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND OVERTAKE THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND LEADING TO COOL, DRY N
TO NE FLOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A LONG STRETCH OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
THAT SETS IN THURSDAY WILL LIKELY PERSIST BEYOND THE NEXT 7
DAYS. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN HIGH AT THE SURFACE BUILDS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, IT WILL BE
HELD LARGELY IN PLACE BY AN OMEGA BLOCK IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. LINGERING MID/UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NE CONUS WILL
EVOLVE INTO A LARGE CLOSED LOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A SERIES
OF MID/UPPER TROUGHS AND CLOSED LOWS ROTATE THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
THIS WILL PINCH OFF A LARGE MID/UPPER RIDGE IN BETWEEN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADA. THIS BLOCK WILL ALSO BE
REINFORCED BY SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHING IN THE DEEP SOUTH. THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE
OF THE OMEGA BLOCK, WITH UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE LAKES SUPPORTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
COOL N TO NE FLOW THURSDAY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S, WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN IS
BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND IS FORECAST TO
IMPACT KFDY, KMFD, KCAK, AND KYNG OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
THROUGH 18-22Z TODAY. THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF LOWERED VIS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THAT THESE SITES, BUT GENERALLY WILL BE VFR.
RAIN WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BEFORE
SHIFTING TO BE MORE NORTHERLY AROUND 00Z TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...VFR IS LARGELY FAVORED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT UNDER 5 KNOTS, THEN SHIFT TO
BE PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS
THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THIS SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE NORTH AT 5-10 KNOTS AND WITH A
BRIEF INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT TO 10-15 KNOTS OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST. WAVES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE LESS THAN 3 FEET.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GARUCKAS
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23
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