260
FXUS61 KCLE 152341
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
740 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME SEVERE STORMS
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
2) A COMPACT SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
LATER TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG IN NORTHWEST
OHIO.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... A VERY ANOMALOUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AS THE LOW LIFTS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE LOW'S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
AT THIS POINT, THE BEST INSTABILITY/SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA OWED TO MORE FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING,
BUT GIVEN THE ROBUST WIND FIELD (INCLUDING A 60 TO 70 KNOT LLJ),
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE NEEDED FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. IT
CONTINUES TO BE A BIT EARLY TO GET TOO FAR INTO THE WEEDS GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES/PARAMETERS, BUT THERE
CERTAINLY MAY BE ORGANIZED CONVECTION/STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS UNCHANGED
FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF I-77 FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
CONTINUING EAST TO ROUGHLY THE NE OH/NW PA BORDER. WILL ALSO
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY
FLOODING, AS PWATS ARE EXPECT TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
AND THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING IF MEAN FLOW BECOMES A
BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WPC NOW HAS MUCH OF OHIO IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, WITH A MARGINAL RISK CONFINED TO
FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.
THE WIND FIELD WILL BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
GUSTY NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAYTIME HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY
AREAWIDE, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF GUSTS AS HIGH AS
45 MPH DURING PEAK MIXING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS; A WIND ADVISORY CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT
SOME POINT FOR THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A RELATIVELY WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE BEGINNING MID/LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THEN SPREADING EAST THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. THE HIGHER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT, WITH SHOWER CHANCES THEN TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE'S STILL UNCERTAINTY
IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS INSTABILITY WANES
AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA INTO THE EVENING, BUT IT'S
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS ALONG/WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW AT THIS POINT, BUT THERE REMAINS A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER ALONG AND WEST OF I-75. THE
BULK OF THE BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY BE TO THE
WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 00Z
TAF PERIOD WITH JUST MAINLY CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH 12Z, BEFORE
AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS LATER TUESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS
15-25 KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR ARE
FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. MAINLY DRY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK AS
MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY
LIGHT CHOP WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST, ALLOWING FOR NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15
KNOTS TO GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY 10-15 KNOTS THIS
EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY BEFORE WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS AS A WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH
TUESDAY EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY, BUT GIVEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW WAVES
SHOULD REMAIN 1-3 FEET ACROSS THE NEARSHORE ZONES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN WINDS FOR THE
POTENTIAL NEED OF HEADLINES, BUT AT THIS POINT THAT POTENTIAL
APPEARS VERY MARGINAL.
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE WHEN THE MOST
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT LAKE ERIE. A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL BRING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN, INCREASING
WAVES TO OVER 6 FEET, POSSIBLY TOUCHING 10 FEET AT TIMES IN THE OPEN
WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON THURSDAY, BUT IT IS HIGHLY ADVISED TO REMAIN OFF OF LAKE ERIE
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY GIVEN THE EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFTS AND THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD
OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THIS
STORM SYSTEM TO DETERMINE APPROPRIATE HEADLINES.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15/JM
AVIATION...JM/TMA
MARINE...04/JM
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