282
FXUS61 KCLE 161809
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
209 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGES MADE THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME SEVERE STORMS
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
2) A COMPACT SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... ANOMALOUSLY LOW PRESSURE FOR MID-JUNE WILL PASS
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY PUSHING
ACROSS A WARM FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
EXPAND EAST IN COVERAGE.
WHILE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND CORRESPONDING SEVERE WEATHER
RISK CONTINUES TO CORRELATE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA DUE TO MORE FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING, A ROBUST WIND FIELD
FROM A 60 TO 70 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET OVERHEAD WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT EVEN WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. MESO-SCALE FEATURES
AND PARAMETERS ARE JUST STARTING TO SHINE A LIGHT TO THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND GIVEN ITS EARLIER STAGES, THERE WILL
LIKELY BE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-77, AND A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR THE AREAS EAST OF I-77 TO ROUGHLY
NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE. IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AS PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO
AROUND 2 INCHES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS IF THE
MEAN FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS BEING SAID, THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF OHIO AND A
MARGINAL RISK ALONG THE FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.
OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, THE WIND FIELD WILL BE
POIGNANT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, AND THEREFOR SUPPORT GUSTY
NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AREA WIDE, WITH A PERIOD OF 45MPH
GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING PEAK DIURNAL MIXING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS BEING SAID, WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST
TRENDS; A WIND ADVISORY CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT SOME POINT FOR
THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY, SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO PASS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SPREADING
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE AND TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATER HALF OF TONIGHT. DUE TO THE TIMING
OF CONVECTION, THE BEST AREAS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING, DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OHIO
MAINLY WEST OF I-75 WHERE A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN PLACE. AS THE ACTIVITY PROGRESSES EAST,
AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL EFFECT, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LOSE THEIR POTENCY AND PASS IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS WITH A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION WEATHER FOR THIS MIDDAY TAF
UPDATE WILL BE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE VFR OUTSIDE
OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT TAF
SITES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE ARE PROB30 GROUPS
HIGHLIGHTING THE TIMING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 22Z (NWOH) TO 09Z (NWPA). THERE MAY BE BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS AND REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WITH THE SCATTERED
CONVECTION. OTHERWISE, VFR EXPECTED WITH HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING 10 TO 15 KNOTS,
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10
KNOTS AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR ARE
FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS WITH THIS MARINE FORECAST UPDATE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ROUGH CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ON LAKE ERIE
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENING TO AROUND 988 MB AND MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. BEFORE THEN, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES 1 TO 3 FEET. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH 20 TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO REACH UP TO
GALES OF 35 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS AS THE STRONG SURFACE LOW
TRACKS JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY 20 TO 30 KNOTS THURSDAY. HIGHER
WAVES OF 4 TO 9 FEET ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGHER END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE VERY LIKELY
NEEDED. GALES MAY BE POSSIBLE AND WILL BE WATCHING FUTURE TRENDS
IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WATER
LEVELS TO DROP TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE CRITICAL LOW WATER MARK
FOR SAFE MARINE NAVIGATION ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WAVES OF 1
TO 4 FEET.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77
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