445
FXUS61 KCLE 170004
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
804 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO RAIN/STORM TIMING AND AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN GUSTY NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. STORMS WILL BE ON A WEAKENING TREND,
BUT MAY STILL PACK ISOLATED STRONGER WIND GUSTS ALONG I-75 WHERE
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE THIS EVENING.
2) ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE AND PLACEMENT OF THE SEVERE RISK WITH
THIS ACTIVITY, BUT ALL SEVERE HAZARDS AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. STORMS HAVE THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
BEING SEVERE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA, WHERE A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE.
3) SYNOPTIC (NON-THUNDERSTORM) WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST ON THURSDAY. GUSTS
HAVE POTENTIAL TO REACH 40 TO 50 MPH AT TIMES AND A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
4) COOLER THAN AVERAGE WITH MAINLY ISOLATED OR MINOR RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK AND START THE WEEKEND. A
SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1:
WATER VAPOR, SATELLITE, AND RADAR IMAGERY ALL DEPICT A
SEASONALLY IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PACKAGE WILL MOVE EAST AND AFFECT THE LOCAL
AREA LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE SHOWER AND THUNDER POTENTIAL ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS TAKING SHAPE FROM
NORTHWEST OHIO INTO MICHIGAN/INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
SWEEP EAST TONIGHT. BOTH THE FRONT ITSELF AND A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH MAY ACT AS TRIGGERS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER. OVERALL, EXPECT
A BATCH OR TWO OF SHOWERS/THUNDER TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
WITH ACTIVITY SLOWLY WEAKENING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING AND
WITH A DRIER/MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO THE EAST. SOME SHOWERS
LIKELY WILL MAKE IT EAST ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE FORCING WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL FEATURE MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR,
DEEP LOW-LEVEL INVERTED-V PROFILES, BUT MODEST/SKINNY/SHALLOW
INSTABILITY PROFILES. THIS OVERALL ENVIRONMENT CAN SUPPORT
ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS, BUT AS CONVECTION WEAKENS
THROUGH THE EVENING AND AS THE LOW-LEVELS STABILIZE WITH SUNSET
THIS MODEST RISK SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOLER/PLEASANT NIGHT, ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT BEHIND THE SHOWERS, WITH LOWS MAINLY FALLING INTO THE
50S WITH CLOSER TO 60 ALONG THE LAKE. THE FIRST HALF OR SO OF THE
DAY WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND PLEASANT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUN. HIGHS WILL MAINLY TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO PERHAPS NEAR 80.
KEY MESSAGE #2:
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT,
QUICKLY AMPLIFYING AND TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT WHILE SWINGING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS EVOLUTION WILL FORCE
A STRONG SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT BACK ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WITH A RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN, MAINLY ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT,
THOUGH THE FORECAST IS TRICKY WITH SOURCES FOR UNCERTAINTY.
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT TWO POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION...A
FIRST, LOWER-CONFIDENCE ROUND LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA, AND THEN A
SECOND AND MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND FROM THE WEST LATER WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
IN TERMS OF ANY ACTIVITY WITH THE WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING, SEVERAL MODELS ATTEMPT TO SHOW SOME RAIN
AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER ABOUT 3 PM AND THE FORECAST HAS A CORRESPONDING INCREASE
IN POPS. HOWEVER, A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS
FIRST ROUND WILL BE A FAIRLY COOL, DRY, AND STABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND OVERALL SLOW MOISTURE RETURN
UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY ULTIMATELY MAKE
IT HARD TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH
THE WARM FRONT. BOTH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP- LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
QUITE STRONG, SO IF WE DO SEE A SUSTAINED STORM OR TWO WITH THE
WARM FRONT AS THE 12Z HRRR DEPICTS THE ACTIVITY MAY BE
SUPERCELLULAR WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE
HAZARD...HOWEVER, IT'S WORTH NOTING MOST GUIDANCE IS LESS
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE 12Z HRRR IN THIS WINDOW, SO UNLESS WE TREND
TOWARDS QUICKER DESTABILIZATION THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED THE MAIN
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE WITH THE OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT. IF THERE IS
AN EARLIER SEVERE STORM WITH THE WARM FRONT, IT WOULD BE
FAVORED TOWARDS THE MARION/MT VERNON AREAS IN OUR SOUTHWEST.
IN TERMS OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH THE COLD FRONT,
THE ENVIRONMENT TO OUR WEST IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY CONDUCIVE TO
SEVERE WEATHER WITH ALL HAZARDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND SPREAD
EAST, AND THERE'S HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL AT
LEAST SEE SOME RAIN AND THUNDER AS THE COLD FRONT AND THAT
CONVECTION PROGRESS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. WHAT'S OF LOWER
CONFIDENCE IS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WITH THIS SECOND ROUND. WHAT WE KNOW IS THAT WIND SHEAR WILL BE
VERY IMPRESSIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A 60-70KT LOW-LEVEL JET
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA...NOT COMMON FOR THE MIDDLE OF JUNE, AND
THIS MAKES IT SUCH THAT WE WILL NOT NEED MUCH INSTABILITY TO SEE
SEVERE WEATHER IF WE SEE ORGANIZED, SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION.
HOWEVER, MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEEPER INSTABILITY WILL STRUGGLE
TO ADVECT INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH HI-RES MODELS
SHOWING MIXED DEPICTIONS OF THE EXACT TIMING, TRACK, AND
EVOLUTION OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA. ANY
SEVERE THREAT WITH THE COLD FRONT LIKELY ARRIVES IN THE TOLEDO
AREA AFTER 7-8 PM AND CONTINUES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH 2-3 AM.
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL PEAK
TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND ACROSS
OUR AREA DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LESS CONDUCIVE DIURNAL TIMING
AND A GENERALLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER, THE AMOUNT OF FORCING AND SHEAR ARE CONCERNING STILL
LOCALLY...GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL BE
TRANSITIONING FROM A SUPERCELLULAR TO MORE LINEAR MODE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE PUSHING INTO OUR AREA. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
WIND SHEAR, ANY SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS THAT MAKE IT INTO OUR
AREA COULD BRING ALL SEVERE HAZARDS (WIND, TORNADOES, POSSIBLY
HAIL), WITH MORE LINEAR STORM MODELS FAVORING WIND DAMAGE AND
STILL SOME QLCS TORNADO POTENTIAL. THE GENERAL IMPRESSION IS
THAT THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN CONDUCIVE ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE
THREAT INTO AT LEAST NORTHWEST OHIO WITH THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY MURKIER AND LESS
FAVORABLE OVERALL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO THE EAST. GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR THIS SETUP CERTAINLY HAS SOME UPSIDE OR
CEILING, AS INDICATED BY THE SIG1 HATCHING ON THE DAY 2 SPC
OUTLOOK ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO FOR WIND AND TORNADOES. HOWEVER AS
DISCUSSED CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER SIDE GIVEN QUESTIONS ABOUT
TIMING AND INSTABILITY LOCALLY, PARTICULARLY FARTHER EAST. FEEL
THE SPC DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF
OUR AREA TAPERING TO A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) TO THE EAST
CAPTURES THE GENERAL FLAVOR OF THIS FORECAST/MESSAGING WELL.
DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME FAIRLY PARALLEL TO THE SAGGING COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PWATS (1.70-1.90") ADVECT IN ON A
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING
CONVECTION WITH A LOCAL FLASH FLOODING RISK WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MANY HI-RES MODELS HAVE SWATHS OF 3-5" OF RAIN SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE BROADER REGION WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S CONVECTION, BUT DO NOT
AGREE ON A MORE DEFINED CORRIDOR OF WHERE THIS MAY OCCUR YET.
KEY MESSAGE #3:
THIS NOTABLY STRONG SYSTEM FOR MID-JUNE WILL BRING IMPRESSIVE
SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS FOR METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE ARE TWO WINDOWS FOR STRONGER
GUSTS...ONE WILL BE BENEATH THE STRONG, 60-70KT SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE WINDS
WILL NOT MIX DOWN VERY EFFICIENTLY, BUT THERE MAY BE SOME
SPORADIC STRONGER GUSTS AS THE WEAKENING CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE LAKESHORE FROM NEAR
CLEVELAND POINTS NORTHEAST MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE A WINDOW OF
STRONGER 45-55 MPH TYPE GUSTS DUE TO LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT. THE NEXT WINDOW WILL BE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AS WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG AND AS
MIXING HEIGHTS QUICKLY DEEPEN WITH DAYTIME HEATING BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. THE GENERAL IMPRESSION IS MUCH OF THE AREA CAN SEE
40-50 MPH WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
WE ARE A FORECAST CYCLE OR TWO TOO EARLY FOR WIND ADVISORIES,
BUT WE MAY NEED ADVISORIES ALONG THE EASTERN LAKESHORE FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A MORE WIDESPREAD HEADLINE FOR THE DAY
THURSDAY. WE NORMALLY DO NOT SEE WIDESPREAD/SYNOPTIC WINDS THAT
ARE THIS GUSTY WHEN TREES ARE FULLY LEAFED OUT, WHICH COULD
CAUSE MORE TO COME DOWN THAN WOULD TYPICALLY OCCUR WITH THESE
TYPES OF WINDS DURING THE WINTER MONTHS.
KEY MESSAGE #4:
THE REST OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIETER AFTER
THURSDAY. A NICE COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK AND START
THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. A SYSTEM
LOOKS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GENERAL REGION SUNDAY OR MONDAY,
BRINGING THE NEXT MORE ORGANIZED RAIN POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
INTERIOR NE OHIO. THESE COULD BRING BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO MAINLY KCLE, KMFD, KCAK, AND KYNG OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO, BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANY HITTING A TERMINAL IS LOW. BIGGEST
IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR. A SECOND ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO NW OHIO
LATE THIS EVENING BUT WILL BE FALLING APART WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDER, LEADING
TO OCCASIONAL MVFR, WILL BE AT KTOL AND KFDY IN THE 02-04Z
TIMEFRAME. THE SHOWERS SHOULD REACH THE KMFD AND KCLE AREAS BY
03-06Z, BUT REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER THERE AND JUST HAVE
VCSH BY THE TIME THEY REACH KCAK, KYNG, AND KERI SINCE THEY WILL
BE RAPIDLY DECAYING.
OTHERWISE, VFR WILL DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL
A MUCH MORE ORGANIZED WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTS
TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE. THERE
IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF WEDNESDAY EVENING'S
ROUND, BUT INTRODUCED SOME PRECIP AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE AT KTOL AND KFDY.
S TO SW WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT UNTIL INCREASING TO 15-25 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE TURNING MORE SE. WINDS COULD BECOME UNUSUALLY GUSTY FOR
SUMMER BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH SE GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT KCLE AND KERI.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS WITH THIS MARINE FORECAST UPDATE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ROUGH CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ON LAKE ERIE
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENING TO AROUND 988 MB AND MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. BEFORE THEN, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES 1 TO 3 FEET. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH 20 TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO REACH UP TO
GALES OF 35 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS AS THE STRONG SURFACE LOW
TRACKS JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY 20 TO 30 KNOTS THURSDAY. HIGHER
WAVES OF 4 TO 9 FEET ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGHER END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE VERY LIKELY
NEEDED. GALES MAY BE POSSIBLE AND WILL BE WATCHING FUTURE TRENDS
IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WATER
LEVELS TO DROP TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE CRITICAL LOW WATER MARK
FOR SAFE MARINE NAVIGATION ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WAVES OF 1
TO 4 FEET.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...77
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page