112
FXUS61 KCLE 170730
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
330 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY HAS
BEEN EXPANDED EAST TO INCLUDE LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
I-75 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST LARGELY REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.
3) GUSTY NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY.
4) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP 980MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE
LOW WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WITH A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE'S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE SECOND ROUND LATER THIS EVENING, BUT IT
APPEARS THAT THE SECOND ROUND WILL MOVE INTO THE TOLEDO AREA
AFTER 8-9 PM AND INTO THE CLEVELAND AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WHILE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT WITH THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION, THE BETTER CHANCE
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATER
TONIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN UNSEASONABLE 60 TO 70 KNOT LLJ OVER THE
LOCAL AREA AND DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. THE IMPRESSIVE
WIND FIELD WILL RESULT IN AMPLE WIND SHEAR AS THESE STORMS MOVE
INTO THE AREA, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRETTY LIMITED AT
THIS POINT. IN AN ENVIRONMENT LIKE THIS, HOWEVER, IT WON'T TAKE
MUCH INSTABILITY FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN ITSELF.
GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS A BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS CONGEALING
INTO MORE OF A QLCS AT SOME POINT TONIGHT, THOUGH THERE'S SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE/WHEN THAT WILL HAPPEN. EITHER WAY, STORMS
WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA. THE ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) HAS BEEN
EXPANDED EAST TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND NOW INCLUDES THE WESTERN
PART OF THE TOLEDO METRO AREA, BOWLING GREEN, AND FINDLAY.
MEANWHILE, A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) STRETCHES EAST TO JUST
EAST OF I-77 WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) SPANNING FROM
JUST EAST OF I-77 INTO FAR WESTERN PA. ALL SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS WILL BE ON THE TABLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR IN PLACE,
HOWEVER LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I-71 HAVE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL OF SEEING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION
TO TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT, PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1.75 TO 2
INCHES, WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND THE DAILY MAXIMUM. THE UNUSUALLY
HIGH PWAT VALUES IN COMBINATION WITH "TALL, SKINNY CAPE" WILL
PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE FOR HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. FLOW MAY BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME TRAINING, HOWEVER
STORM MOTION WILL BE QUITE FAST WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT RESIDENCE
TIME OVER ONE LOCATION. THERE'S QUITE A SPREAD IN THE HIGHEST
AXES OF QPF AMONGST GUIDANCE MEMBERS WHICH RESULTS IN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATIONS OF THE GREATEST FLOODING RISK.
WHILE THERE WILL PROBABLY BE LOCALIZED FLOODING (AND POSSIBLY
FLASH FLOODING) SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA, CONFIDENCE IN THE
LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A PERIOD OF
WIND GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH WITH THE BEST LLJ AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT IT'S
POSSIBLE THAT THESE GUSTS ARE LARGELY CONVECTIVE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD BE
ISOLATED AT TIMES DUE TO INEFFICIENT VERTICAL MIXING. IF THESE
STRONG GUSTS END UP MATERIALIZING OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS
ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH
SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 TO 45 MPH
LIKELY AREAWIDE. THIS WOULD BE THE SECOND OPPORTUNITY FOR A WIND
ADVISORY. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, EVENTS LIKE
THIS TYPICALLY HAPPEN DURING A TIME OF YEAR WHEN LEAVES ARE NOT
ON TREES. LEAFED OUT TREES WILL BE MORE VULNERABLE TO STRONG
WINDS AND SUSTAIN DAMAGE MORE EASILY, WHICH COULD RESULT IN
MORE POWER OUTAGES IN COMPARISON TO SIMILAR SIMILAR GUSTS DURING
THE COLD SEASON.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DOWNWIND FROM LAKE ERIE THROUGH
THURSDAY. FROM THERE, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED. LOWS WILL DROP INTO
THE 50S THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OUT
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH KYNG THE ONLY TERMINAL STILL
IMPACTED. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN
AREAS WHERE IT RAINED THIS PAST EVENING, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW AT THIS POINT OF WHERE THIS MAY OCCUR. HAVE INCLUDED BR
AT CAK WHICH ALREADY HAS REDUCED VISIBILITIES, BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR ANY EXPANSION FROM THERE. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE NEAR SUNRISE AND REBOUND TO VFR AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10-12
KNOTS.
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING, WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TO BE
MORE SOUTHERLY AT 12-15 KNOTS, INITIALLY GUSTING UP TO 30 KNOTS
BEFORE 00Z ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS. THESE WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GUSTS WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION, VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO NON-VFR AT TERMINALS AFTER 00Z BUT GIVEN SOME
TIMING UNCERTAINTY, OPTED TO CAP THOSE VISIBILITIES AT 4SM FOR
MOST SPOTS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA MAY BECOME
SEVERE, WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE FORECAST TO HONE IN MORE
SPECIFICALLY. IN ADDITION TO THESE DIMINISHED AVIATION
CONDITIONS, AN EXTREMELY STRONG LLJ OF 60-70 KNOTS WILL PUSH
OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN VERY STRONG LLWS. OPTED TO HANDLE THE
STRONG WINDS WITH THE GUSTS, BUT GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS NATURE OF
A JET LIKE THIS IN SUMMER, WANTED TO NOTE IT HERE.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS WITH THIS MARINE FORECAST UPDATE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ROUGH CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ON LAKE ERIE
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENING TO AROUND 988 MB AND MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. BEFORE THEN, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES 1 TO 3 FEET. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH 20 TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO REACH UP TO
GALES OF 35 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS AS THE STRONG SURFACE LOW
TRACKS JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY 20 TO 30 KNOTS THURSDAY. HIGHER
WAVES OF 4 TO 9 FEET ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGHER END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE VERY LIKELY
NEEDED. GALES MAY BE POSSIBLE AND WILL BE WATCHING FUTURE TRENDS
IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WATER
LEVELS TO DROP TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE CRITICAL LOW WATER MARK
FOR SAFE MARINE NAVIGATION ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WAVES OF 1
TO 4 FEET.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...04
MARINE...77
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