700
FXUS61 KCLE 171135
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
735 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY HAS
BEEN EXPANDED EAST TO INCLUDE LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
I-75 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST LARGELY REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.
3) GUSTY NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY.
4) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP 980MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE
LOW WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WITH A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE'S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE SECOND ROUND LATER THIS EVENING, BUT IT
APPEARS THAT THE SECOND ROUND WILL MOVE INTO THE TOLEDO AREA
AFTER 8-9 PM AND INTO THE CLEVELAND AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WHILE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT WITH THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION, THE BETTER CHANCE
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATER
TONIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN UNSEASONABLE 60 TO 70 KNOT LLJ OVER THE
LOCAL AREA AND DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. THE IMPRESSIVE
WIND FIELD WILL RESULT IN AMPLE WIND SHEAR AS THESE STORMS MOVE
INTO THE AREA, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRETTY LIMITED AT
THIS POINT. IN AN ENVIRONMENT LIKE THIS, HOWEVER, IT WON'T TAKE
MUCH INSTABILITY FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN ITSELF.
GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS A BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS CONGEALING
INTO MORE OF A QLCS AT SOME POINT TONIGHT, THOUGH THERE'S SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE/WHEN THAT WILL HAPPEN. EITHER WAY, STORMS
WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA. THE ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) HAS BEEN
EXPANDED EAST TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND NOW INCLUDES THE WESTERN
PART OF THE TOLEDO METRO AREA, BOWLING GREEN, AND FINDLAY.
MEANWHILE, A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) STRETCHES EAST TO JUST
EAST OF I-77 WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) SPANNING FROM
JUST EAST OF I-77 INTO FAR WESTERN PA. ALL SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS WILL BE ON THE TABLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR IN PLACE,
HOWEVER LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I-71 HAVE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL OF SEEING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION
TO TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT, PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1.75 TO 2
INCHES, WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND THE DAILY MAXIMUM. THE UNUSUALLY
HIGH PWAT VALUES IN COMBINATION WITH "TALL, SKINNY CAPE" WILL
PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE FOR HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. FLOW MAY BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME TRAINING, HOWEVER
STORM MOTION WILL BE QUITE FAST WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT RESIDENCE
TIME OVER ONE LOCATION. THERE'S QUITE A SPREAD IN THE HIGHEST
AXES OF QPF AMONGST GUIDANCE MEMBERS WHICH RESULTS IN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATIONS OF THE GREATEST FLOODING RISK.
WHILE THERE WILL PROBABLY BE LOCALIZED FLOODING (AND POSSIBLY
FLASH FLOODING) SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA, CONFIDENCE IN THE
LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A PERIOD OF
WIND GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH WITH THE BEST LLJ AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT IT'S
POSSIBLE THAT THESE GUSTS ARE LARGELY CONVECTIVE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD BE
ISOLATED AT TIMES DUE TO INEFFICIENT VERTICAL MIXING. IF THESE
STRONG GUSTS END UP MATERIALIZING OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS
ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH
SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 TO 45 MPH
LIKELY AREAWIDE. THIS WOULD BE THE SECOND OPPORTUNITY FOR A WIND
ADVISORY. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, EVENTS LIKE
THIS TYPICALLY HAPPEN DURING A TIME OF YEAR WHEN LEAVES ARE NOT
ON TREES. LEAFED OUT TREES WILL BE MORE VULNERABLE TO STRONG
WINDS AND SUSTAIN DAMAGE MORE EASILY, WHICH COULD RESULT IN
MORE POWER OUTAGES IN COMPARISON TO SIMILAR SIMILAR GUSTS DURING
THE COLD SEASON.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DOWNWIND FROM LAKE ERIE THROUGH
THURSDAY. FROM THERE, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED. LOWS WILL DROP INTO
THE 50S THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
REGION AND CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA DIMINISH. INITIALLY THIS
EVENING, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY
RESULT IN ISOLATED CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH TIMING OR EXTENT OF THAT
ROUND LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL. THE MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL BEGIN AROUND 00Z FOR WESTERN TERMINALS AND SPREAD
EAST. WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP, STRONG WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. IN THE
MOST WELL DEVELOPED STORMS, CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE
TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR VISIBILITIES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE PERSISTENT AND THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN, SO
OPTED TO HANDLE MOST OF THAT IFR CONDITIONS IN PROB30 FOR THE
WESTERN TERMINALS.
IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS, STRONG NON-
THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS FOR MUCH OF TODAY WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AT 5-12 KNOTS BEFORE QUICKLY INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. THESE
STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT AS A LLJ JET OF 60-70
KNOTS PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO
BECOME WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING, BUT REMAIN
ELEVATED AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP
FAIRLY PLEASANT MARINE CONDITIONS PRESENT ACROSS LAKE ERIE WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. GIVEN OFFSHORE FLOW, WAVES WILL
REMAIN 1-2 FEET INTO THE EVENING.
VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW, A STRONG COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE BEGINNING NEAR 00Z
THURSDAY, BRINGING STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. INITIAL WINDS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST BEFORE BACKING TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY THURSDAY
MORNING. SOME WINDS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS AT TIMES, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER STILL POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. AS
THE WINDS GAIN A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT, WAVE HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE WESTERN BASIN LAKESHORE AND 6 TO 8
FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKESHORE. LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES
UP TO 10 FEET ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE OPEN WATERS.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO SMALL CRAFTS AND WILL ALSO
RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. SWIMMING AND BOATING WILL BE
DANGEROUS ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS,
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS, THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR WATER LEVELS
IN THE WESTERN BASIN TO FALL BELOW THE CRITICAL MARK FOR SAFE
NAVIGATION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TO HIGHLIGHT THESE CONCERNS, BOTH
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAVE BEEN ISSUED
AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WATER LEVELS IN COMING FORECASTS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED, BUT WAVE HEIGHTS ONLY CLIMBING TO
1 TO 4 FEET.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR OHZ003-007-009>012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04
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