150
FXUS61 KCLE 181908
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
308 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LINGERING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING.
2) MAINLY DRY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
WINDS ALOFT REMAIN BETWEEN 35-45 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE IN NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. AREA SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY WESTERLY AT
20-30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. HAVE MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS FROM THE WEST.
ASIDE FROM THE GUSTY CONDITIONS, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. EXPECT FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. HOWEVER, SOME ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY.
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON
MONDAY. LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 1.50+ INCHES RAINFALL SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 50-60% FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THAT, WPC HAS INCLUDED THE WESTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING THAT TIMEFRAME.
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND
TODAY'S COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S EACH AFTERNOON WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT APPEARED TO EXTEND SW'WARD FROM
NORTH AND WEST OF KERI TO EAST AND SOUTH OF KLNN TO NORTH AND
WEST OF KMFD TO EAST AND SOUTH OF KMNN. THIS FRONT CONTINUES
MOVING E'WARD AND SHOULD EXIT THE REST OF OUR REGION BY
~20Z/THURS. BEHIND THE FRONT, A RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS THROUGH 18Z/FRI. AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT, OUR REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS TREND SW'ERLY TO W'ERLY,
WHILE W'ERLY TO WNW'ERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS, GUSTING UP TO 25 TO 35
KNOTS, ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/FRI. THEREAFTER, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH 18Z/FRI. ISOLATED
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 14Z/FRI.
PRIMARILY VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z/FRI.
HOWEVER, ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, INCLUDING AT KCAK AND KYNG,
THROUGH THIS LATE AFTERNOON. NOTE: SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL
CUMULIFORM CLOUDS WITH BASES NEAR 5KFT AGL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EARLY EVENING AND AGAIN LATE FRI MORNING THROUGH 18Z/FRI.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PERIODIC
THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR SHOWERS WITH NON-VFR ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THE
INCREASED GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20-25 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING, INCREASING TO 30-35 KNOTS
WEST-SOUTHWEST GALES BY LATE MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN WAVES ALONG THE
LAKESHORE BUILDING TO 6-8 FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BASINS, WHERE SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS IN THE WESTERN BASIN WILL
KEEP WAVES TO 4-6 FEET. EITHER WAY, THESE HIGH WINDS AND
BUILDING WAVES WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND WILL ALSO BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL SHIPS. AS A RESULT,
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN BASIN
WITH A GALE WARNING ELSEWHERE AND THE ENTIRE LAKESHORE HAS A
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT GIVEN THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. ALL
HAZARDS WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION, THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN WATER LEVELS FALLING IN THE
WESTERN BASIN. THESE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE
CRITICAL MARK FOR SAFE NAVIGATION WHICH IS CURRENTLY 13 INCHES.
A LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN BASIN AS
WELL.
BY TONIGHT, MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS WEAKENING TO 10-15 KNOTS AND WAVES FALLING
TO 3 FEET OR LESS. THESE WINDS WILL VEER A BIT ON FRIDAY,
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY BUILD WAVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASINS TO NEAR 4 FEET AND REQUIRE A SHORT FUSED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY BEFORE CALM CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-
007-009>012-089.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ011>014-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>144.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ142>144-162>164.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ145>149-
165>169.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...04
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