960
FXUS61 KCLE 182355
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
755 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LINGERING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING.
2) MAINLY DRY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
WINDS ALOFT REMAIN BETWEEN 35-45 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE IN NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. AREA SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY WESTERLY AT
20-30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. HAVE MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS FROM THE WEST.
ASIDE FROM THE GUSTY CONDITIONS, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. EXPECT FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. HOWEVER, SOME ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY.
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON
MONDAY. LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 1.50+ INCHES RAINFALL SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 50-60% FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THAT, WPC HAS INCLUDED THE WESTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING THAT TIMEFRAME.
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND
TODAY'S COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S EACH AFTERNOON WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS IN
THE 4 TO 5 KFT RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE EVENING HOURS IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME. WITH
NIGHTTIME BUILDING, CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WEST WINDS. FOR FRIDAY, A TROUGH OVER THE
REGION, NORTHEAST OF HIGH PRESSURE, WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS RETURN
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, AGAIN IN THE 4 TO 5 KFT RANGE. SOME VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING OCCURRING AT
OR NEAR A TERMINAL IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN A
TAF. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NON-VFR WOULD BE
LIMITED TO JUST THE STRONGEST SHOWERS/STORMS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE NON-VFR COVERAGE.
MARINE
THE LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED AND THE GALE WARNING WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO
REEVALUATE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT
ALREADY IN EFFECT BASED ON TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND OUR OFFICIAL
FORECAST. A TROUGH LINGERS OVER LAKE ERIE THROUGH FRIDAY AS ITS
PARENT AND POTENT LOW WOBBLES ENE'WARD FROM SOUTHERN QC TO NB.
WSW'ERLY TO WNW'ERLY WINDS INITIALLY AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS EASE TO
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WAVES INITIALLY AS LARGE
AS 5 TO 10 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL 12 FOOTERS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 4 FEET
OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN TO 3 FEET OR LESS BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY, WSW'ERLY TO WNW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS,
FLIRTING WITH 20 KNOTS AT TIMES ARE EXPECTED. WAVES OF MAINLY 3 FEET
OR LESS WITH OCCASIONAL 4 FOOTERS ARE FORECAST.
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVERSPREADS LAKE ERIE SLOWLY AND FROM THE WEST. THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY PRIMARILY W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS. WAVES OF 3 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. ON SUNDAY, THE RIDGE
WILL CREST E'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY VARIABLE
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND
ONSHORE DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING DUE TO LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WAVES SHOULD BE 2 FEET OR LESS.
DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, A TROUGH SHOULD AFFECT LAKE ERIE
AS A DEEPENING LOW WOBBLES ENE'WARD FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TOWARD
CENTRAL NY. WINDS SHOULD BECOME SE'ERLY TO E'ERLY AND FRESHEN TO
AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BACKING TOWARD N'ERLY AND
EASING SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS ON MONDAY. WAVES AS LARGE
AS 3 TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED. N'ERLY TO W'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS SHOULD IMPACT
LAKE ERIE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND VICINITY. WAVES OF MAINLY 3 FEET OR
LESS ARE FORECAST, BUT OCCASIONAL 4 FOOTERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-
007-009.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ010>012-
089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>144.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...JASZKA
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