497
FXUS61 KCLE 190557
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
157 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LINGERING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING.
2) MAINLY DRY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
WINDS ALOFT REMAIN BETWEEN 35-45 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE IN NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. AREA SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY WESTERLY AT
20-30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. HAVE MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS FROM THE WEST.
ASIDE FROM THE GUSTY CONDITIONS, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. EXPECT FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. HOWEVER, SOME ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY.
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON
MONDAY. LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 1.50+ INCHES RAINFALL SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 50-60% FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THAT, WPC HAS INCLUDED THE WESTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING THAT TIMEFRAME.
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND
TODAY'S COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S EACH AFTERNOON WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
FROM THE CORN BELT THIS MORNING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THIS
EVENING. A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BENEATH THE
COLD AIR ALOT THIS AFTERNOON OVER NE OHIO AND NW PA, BUT THESE
WILL BE SO WIDELY SCATTERED THAT THEY MAY NOT IMPACT A TERMINAL,
SO KEPT IT VCSH AT KCAK, KYNG, AND KERI.
WNW WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 KNOTS BY LATE THIS MORNING, WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NON-VFR WOULD BE
LIMITED TO JUST THE STRONGEST SHOWERS/STORMS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE NON-VFR COVERAGE.
MARINE
WINDS AND WAVES WILL FURTHER DECREASE EARLY THIS MORNING, SO
ALLOWED ALL HEADLINES TO EXPIRE AT 06Z. W WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-20 KNOTS LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND THIS WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS
TO 3 TO 3.5 FEET IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS, BUT EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO STAY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
NEVERTHELESS, IT WILL BE A BIT CHOPPY AGAIN ON LAKE ERIE THIS
AFTERNOON. W TO WNW WINDS WILL THEN AVERAGE 5 TO 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING NW AT 5-10 KNOTS SATURDAY
NIGHT.
THE NEXT PERIOD OF IMPACTFUL WINDS WILL COME LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. E WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 15-25 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT, TURNING NNE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY, SO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ010>012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ145>149.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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