911
FXUS61 KCLE 190813
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
413 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLOWED DOWN RAIN TIMING SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY. TRENDED
TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
2) A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY RESULTING IN RISES ON RIVERS. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A COUPLE RIVERS TO EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING.
3) TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WHILE A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT IS ALREADY IN PLACE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
AIRMASS IS GENERALLY DRY, BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
STRAY SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST OHIO OR NORTHWEST PA
THIS AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT PERHAPS
TOWARDS ERIE PA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER ALOFT.
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MORE COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
COULD MOVE INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDING
BY MIDDAY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND MOVING SOUTHEAST.
WHILE THE COVERAGE IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED, A COUPLE
COUNTIES TOWARDS PORTAGE, TRUMBULL, MAHONING MAY SEE GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. TRENDED POPS UP ANOTHER 10 PERCENT IN THE
EAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS AND RACING EASTWARD.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL OR NORTHERN OHIO AND MAY
OR MAY NOT MERGE WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW ALOFT ROTATING
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. REGARDING THE LOW TRACK, THE 00Z/19
GFS IS A LITTLE TOO FAR SOUTH WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE.
PREFER A MORE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH LIKE THE 00Z/19 ECMWF
WHICH DOES SHOW SOME PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM BY
MONDAY. SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF RAIN, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF I-71 ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOST AREAS NOT SEEING A
STEADY RAIN UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL
INFLUENCE WHO GETS THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. MODEST INSTABILITY DOES LOOK TO EXTEND NORTH INTO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG SHEER. CURRENT FORECAST
SUGGESTS RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BUT THE
GRADIENTS MAY BE MORE SHARP WITH TRAINING POSSIBLE ALONG THE
WARM FRONT. RISES ON AREA RIVERS CAN BE EXPECTED AND THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW TO EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE IF ROBUST CONVECTION OCCURS
AND TRAINS OVER THE SAME AREA. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST POSITION OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
(LEVEL 2 OF 5).
KEY MESSAGE 3...
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK TEND TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF
NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO RESIDE IN THE 70S AS WE
ALTERNATE BETWEEN A NORTHWEST FLOW AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
FROM THE CORN BELT THIS MORNING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THIS
EVENING. A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BENEATH THE
COLD AIR ALOT THIS AFTERNOON OVER NE OHIO AND NW PA, BUT THESE
WILL BE SO WIDELY SCATTERED THAT THEY MAY NOT IMPACT A TERMINAL,
SO KEPT IT VCSH AT KCAK, KYNG, AND KERI.
WNW WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 KNOTS BY LATE THIS MORNING, WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NON-VFR WOULD BE
LIMITED TO JUST THE STRONGEST SHOWERS/STORMS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE NON-VFR COVERAGE.
MARINE
WINDS AND WAVES WILL FURTHER DECREASE EARLY THIS MORNING, SO
ALLOWED ALL HEADLINES TO EXPIRE AT 06Z. W WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-20 KNOTS LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND THIS WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS
TO 3 TO 3.5 FEET IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS, BUT EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO STAY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
NEVERTHELESS, IT WILL BE A BIT CHOPPY AGAIN ON LAKE ERIE THIS
AFTERNOON. W TO WNW WINDS WILL THEN AVERAGE 5 TO 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING NW AT 5-10 KNOTS SATURDAY
NIGHT.
THE NEXT PERIOD OF IMPACTFUL WINDS WILL COME LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. E WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 15-25 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT, TURNING NNE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY, SO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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